Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeRoyal Antwerp FC 4:4 KRC Genk
KRC Genk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 4–4. The biggest difference was Royal Antwerp FC's attack: 1.86 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.48). KRC Genk produced 1.30 xG against 1.59 projected (−0.29).
Goals
- 16' Anthony Valencia Royal Antwerp FC · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
- 31' Josue Ndenge Kongolo KRC Genk · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
- 48' Rafiu Durosinmi KRC Genk · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
- 57' Ayumu Yokoyama KRC Genk · 0.42 xG chance 1–3
- 70' Aaron Bibout KRC Genk · 0.44 xG chance 1–4
- 80' Eran Tuypens Royal Antwerp FC · 0.03 xG chance 2–4
- 86' Michael Frey (pen.) Royal Antwerp FC · 0.82 xG chance 3–4
- 88' Michael Frey Royal Antwerp FC · 0.25 xG chance 4–4
The model against the result
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 31%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- KRC Genk
- 40%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Royal Antwerp FC produced 0.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 11
- On target
- 6
- 7
- Inside the box
- 10
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 1.10
- Set-piece xG
- 0.23
- 0.18
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.31 for Royal Antwerp FC and 1.30 for KRC Genk.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Royal Antwerp FC
- KRC Genk
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.48 xG created 1.12 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 0.56 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.92 created, 1.34 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- D 0.71 created, 2.63 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 2.10 created, 0.43 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against SK Beveren
- W 1.19 created, 0.77 conceded against KV Kortrijk
1.97 xG created 1.05 xGA
- D 2.04 created, 0.62 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 2.63 created, 0.71 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- W 1.25 created, 1.11 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- D 1.09 created, 2.48 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 0.54 created, 0.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 4.24 created, 0.85 conceded against KVC Westerlo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | +9.5% | Won |
| Royal Antwerp FC to win | 3.43 | +6.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC | 31.0% | 27.7% | +3.3 pp | 3.23 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.0% | +0.5 pp | 3.51 |
| KRC Genk | 40.5% | 44.3% | −3.8 pp | 2.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 51.3% | +7.5 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 48.7% | −7.5 pp | 2.43 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- KRC Genk sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.