Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 3:0 RSC Anderlecht
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was RSC Anderlecht's attack: 1.34 xG against 0.95 projected (+0.39).
Goals
- 38' Besfort Zeneli Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.29 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Mateo Biondic Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.06 xG chance 2–0
- 81' Raul Florucz Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.05 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- RSC Anderlecht
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RSC Anderlecht produced 0.39 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 0.97
- 0.88
- Set-piece xG
- 0.64
- 0.45
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.60 for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.34 for RSC Anderlecht.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.94 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- RSC Anderlecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.71 xG created 1.13 xGA
- W 2.52 created, 0.37 conceded against KV Mechelen
- L 1.47 created, 2.31 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- D 1.17 created, 1.46 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 2.40 created, 0.87 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.79 created, 0.76 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
1.40 xG created 1.31 xGA
- D 0.28 created, 1.44 conceded against KAA Gent
- D 0.94 created, 1.16 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 2.01 created, 1.50 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.87 created, 2.40 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 3.05 created, 0.74 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 1.27 created, 0.64 conceded against SK Beveren
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +4.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 53.3% | 54.1% | −0.8 pp | 1.88 |
| Draw | 28.3% | 25.5% | +2.8 pp | 3.53 |
| RSC Anderlecht | 18.4% | 20.4% | −2.0 pp | 5.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score | 83.6% | 82.8% | +0.8 pp | 1.20 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 16.4% | 17.2% | −0.8 pp | 6.10 |
| RSC Anderlecht to score | 64.5% | 62.5% | +2.0 pp | 1.55 |
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 35.5% | 37.5% | −2.0 pp | 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 53.3% | +2.3 pp | 1.80 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.4% | 46.7% | −2.3 pp | 2.25 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals | 51.4% | 53.7% | −2.3 pp | 1.95 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 48.6% | 46.3% | +2.3 pp | 2.06 |
| RSC Anderlecht 2+ goals | 24.4% | 26.9% | −2.5 pp | 4.10 |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 75.6% | 73.1% | +2.5 pp | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | 75.0% | +2.9 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 25.0% | −2.9 pp | 4.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 51.3% | −1.4 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 48.7% | +1.4 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.