Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeSint-Truidense VV 0:3 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.29 projected (+1.20). Sint-Truidense VV produced 0.85 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.42).
Goals
- 23' Louis Patris Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
- 55' Kevin Mac Allister Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.77 xG chance 0–2
- 63' Relebohile Mofokeng Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.09 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 34%
- Draw
- 31%
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise produced 1.20 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 6
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 3
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.21
- Open play xG
- 0.74
- 1.66
- Set-piece xG
- 0.18
- 0.81
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.93 for Sint-Truidense VV and 2.49 for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
18 shots · 3.39 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sint-Truidense VV
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.09 xG created 1.73 xGA
- D 2.09 created, 1.55 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 1.50 created, 2.01 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.52 created, 0.42 conceded against KV Mechelen
- D 1.98 created, 1.49 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.04 created, 4.15 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 3.38 created, 0.77 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
1.55 xG created 1.29 xGA
- L 1.47 created, 2.31 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- D 1.17 created, 1.46 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 2.40 created, 0.87 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 1.79 created, 0.76 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
- Sint-Truidense VV 2:1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 02/05/2026 xG 1.77 – 0.28
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1:0 Sint-Truidense VV 04/04/2026 xG 1.01 – 0.53
- Sint-Truidense VV 1:3 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 22/03/2026 xG 1.14 – 1.59
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2:0 Sint-Truidense VV 26/10/2025 xG 1.67 – 1.93
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 5.50 | +36.3% | Lost |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +24.4% | Lost |
| Sint-Truidense VV to win | 3.40 | +15.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +11.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +9.6% | Lost |
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 1.36 | +2.2% | Lost |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 2.75 | +1.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV | 33.9% | 26.9% | +6.9 pp | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.1% | +5.2 pp | 3.19 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 34.8% | 46.9% | −12.1 pp | 2.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 74.9% | 68.7% | +6.2 pp | 1.34 |
| Sint-Truidense VV not to score | 25.1% | 31.3% | −6.2 pp | 3.99 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score | 75.2% | 82.8% | −7.6 pp | 1.33 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 24.8% | 17.2% | +7.6 pp | 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 58.9% | −0.7 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.8% | 41.1% | +0.7 pp | 2.39 |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 37.0% | 33.7% | +3.3 pp | 2.70 |
| Sint-Truidense VV at most 1 goal | 63.0% | 66.3% | −3.3 pp | 1.59 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals | 37.8% | 53.7% | −15.8 pp | 2.64 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 62.2% | 46.3% | +15.8 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 78.3% | −1.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 21.7% | +1.5 pp | 4.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 56.3% | −8.0 pp | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 43.7% | +8.0 pp | 1.94 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.