Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:15
Full timeSK Beveren 3:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
SK Beveren were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SK Beveren's attack: 2.68 xG against 1.39 projected (+1.29). Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 0.88 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.33).
Goals
- 69' Chris Lokesa SK Beveren · 0.76 xG chance 1–0
- 85' Jearl Margaritha SK Beveren · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Moise Kaboré SK Beveren · 0.35 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- SK Beveren
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 30%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
SK Beveren produced 1.29 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 14
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 2.19
- 0.43
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.47
- Penalties
- —
- —
SK Beveren's shots add up to 2.32 xG and Oud-Heverlee Leuven's to 0.90; the published figures are 2.68 and 0.88.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.22 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Beveren
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.75 xG created 2.29 xGA
1.06 xG created 1.97 xGA
- D 0.83 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 1.11 created, 1.25 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 1.30 created, 3.15 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.89 created, 1.36 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against KAA Gent
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +14.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +5.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +1.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 39.0% | 43.0% | −4.0 pp | 2.56 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 27.2% | +3.7 pp | 3.23 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 30.0% | 29.8% | +0.2 pp | 3.33 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 60.8% | −2.1 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.3% | 39.2% | +2.1 pp | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | 79.2% | −1.7 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 20.8% | +1.7 pp | 4.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 58.2% | −8.9 pp | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 41.8% | +8.9 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Beveren sample
- 4 matches
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- SK Beveren has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.