KRC Genk 4:0 SK Beveren: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:45

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KRC Genk Home 3.06 xG · 12 shots

SK Beveren Away 0.61 xG · 13 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

KRC Genk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was KRC Genk's attack: 3.06 xG against 2.09 projected (+0.97). SK Beveren produced 0.61 xG against 1.04 projected (−0.43).

Goals

9' Rafiu Durosinmi (pen.) KRC Genk · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
19' Junya Ito KRC Genk · 0.03 xG chance 2–0
43' Josue Ndenge Kongolo KRC Genk · 0.53 xG chance 3–0
74' Joris Kayembe KRC Genk · 0.20 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KRC Genk: 61% What happened
Draw: 24%
SK Beveren: 15%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KRC Genk 2.09 3.06 +0.97

SK Beveren 1.04 0.61 -0.43

KRC Genk produced 0.97 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KRC Genk SK Beveren

Shots: 12; 13
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.27; 0.05
Open play xG: 2.18; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.07
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.35 for KRC Genk and 0.61 for SK Beveren.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.83 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

KRC Genk
SK Beveren
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KRC Genk

1.84 xG created 1.25 xGA

D 2.63 created, 0.71 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
W 1.25 created, 1.11 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
D 1.09 created, 2.48 conceded against KAA Gent
L 0.54 created, 0.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
W 4.24 created, 0.85 conceded against KVC Westerlo
D 1.30 created, 1.86 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC

SK Beveren

0.79 xG created 2.03 xGA

L 0.96 created, 2.20 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
W 0.64 created, 1.27 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.78 created, 2.62 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KRC Genk against SK Beveren before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.67	+3.0%	Lost
SK Beveren to score	1.50	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk	61.2%	63.2%	−1.9 pp	1.63
Draw	23.5%	21.9%	+1.7 pp	4.25
SK Beveren	15.2%	15.0%	+0.3 pp	6.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk to score	89.6%	88.1%	+1.5 pp	1.12
KRC Genk not to score	10.4%	11.9%	−1.5 pp	9.58
SK Beveren to score	67.5%	62.5%	+5.0 pp	1.48
SK Beveren not to score	32.5%	37.5%	−5.0 pp	3.08
Both teams to score	61.8%	55.7%	+6.0 pp	1.62
Both teams not to score	38.2%	44.3%	−6.0 pp	2.62
KRC Genk 2+ goals	64.0%	62.5%	+1.5 pp	1.56
KRC Genk at most 1 goal	36.0%	37.5%	−1.5 pp	2.77
SK Beveren 2+ goals	27.9%	26.9%	+1.0 pp	3.59
SK Beveren at most 1 goal	72.1%	73.1%	−1.0 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	84.2%	+1.3 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	15.8%	−1.3 pp	6.88
Over 2.5 goals	62.4%	63.8%	−1.4 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.6%	36.2%	+1.4 pp	2.66

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KRC Genk sample: 20 matches
SK Beveren sample: 3 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SK Beveren has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.