Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeSV Zulte Waregem 0:1 RC Sporting Charleroi
SV Zulte Waregem were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. RC Sporting Charleroi won 1–0. The biggest difference was RC Sporting Charleroi's attack: 1.64 xG against 1.18 projected (+0.46). SV Zulte Waregem produced 1.00 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.41).
Goals
- 29' Jakob Napoleon Romsaas RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- SV Zulte Waregem
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RC Sporting Charleroi produced 0.46 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 15
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 7
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.90
- 0.81
- Set-piece xG
- 0.18
- 0.98
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.05 for SV Zulte Waregem and 1.80 for RC Sporting Charleroi.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 2.87 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SV Zulte Waregem
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.53 xG created 1.05 xGA
- W 2.35 created, 1.38 conceded against FCV Dender
- W 0.51 created, 0.54 conceded against KRC Genk
- D 0.98 created, 0.89 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.62 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 1.51 created, 2.16 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- W 1.19 created, 0.55 conceded against KV Kortrijk
1.94 xG created 0.82 xGA
- W 1.91 created, 0.58 conceded against Standard Liège
- W 3.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.25 created, 0.34 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 1.44 created, 0.23 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.69 created, 1.20 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- L 2.18 created, 1.24 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +7.4% | Won |
| RC Sporting Charleroi not to score | 3.75 | +4.6% | Lost |
| SV Zulte Waregem to win | 2.55 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Zulte Waregem | 40.5% | 35.8% | +4.7 pp | 2.47 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.5% | +2.3 pp | 3.25 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi | 28.7% | 35.8% | −7.0 pp | 3.48 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Zulte Waregem to score | 78.5% | 75.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.27 |
| SV Zulte Waregem not to score | 21.5% | 25.0% | −3.5 pp | 4.65 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi to score | 72.1% | 75.0% | −2.9 pp | 1.39 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi not to score | 27.9% | 25.0% | +2.9 pp | 3.58 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 57.7% | +0.7 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.6% | 42.3% | −0.7 pp | 2.40 |
| SV Zulte Waregem 2+ goals | 42.5% | 42.3% | +0.1 pp | 2.36 |
| SV Zulte Waregem at most 1 goal | 57.5% | 57.7% | −0.1 pp | 1.74 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals | 33.5% | 42.3% | −8.9 pp | 2.99 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 66.5% | 57.7% | +8.9 pp | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | 75.0% | +2.4 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 25.0% | −2.4 pp | 4.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 51.3% | −2.1 pp | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 48.7% | +2.1 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Zulte Waregem sample
- 20 matches
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.