Atlético Madrid 2:2 Villarreal: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Atlético Madrid Home 0.78 xG · 19 shots

Villarreal Away 3.60 xG · 13 shots

22 Villarreal had the better chances, but it finished level

Atlético Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Villarreal's attack: 3.60 xG against 1.05 projected (+2.55). Atlético Madrid produced 0.78 xG against 1.52 projected (−0.74).

Goals

59' Marc Pubill Atlético Madrid · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
66' Gerard Moreno (pen.) Villarreal · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
78' Georges Mikautadze (pen.) Villarreal · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
85' Giuliano Simeone Atlético Madrid · 0.07 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Atlético Madrid: 47%
Draw: 30% What happened
Villarreal: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Atlético Madrid 1.52 0.78 -0.74

Villarreal 1.05 3.60 +2.55

Villarreal produced 2.55 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Atlético Madrid Villarreal

Shots: 19; 13
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 6; 10
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.28
Open play xG: 0.67; 1.97
Set-piece xG: 0.02; 0.00
Penalties: 0; 2

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for Atlético Madrid and 2.02 for Villarreal.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 4.30 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Atlético Madrid
Villarreal
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Atlético Madrid

1.64 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 2.04 created, 1.09 conceded against Valencia
L 2.18 created, 0.13 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 1.56 created, 2.30 conceded against Osasuna
W 1.97 created, 2.17 conceded against Girona FC
L 1.16 created, 2.48 conceded against Villarreal
W 0.92 created, 0.15 conceded against Málaga

Villarreal

1.41 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 2.36 created, 0.76 conceded against Levante UD
D 1.12 created, 1.74 conceded against Mallorca
L 0.83 created, 0.87 conceded against Sevilla
L 0.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 2.48 created, 1.16 conceded against Atlético Madrid
D 0.67 created, 1.87 conceded against Racing de Santander

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Atlético Madrid: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Atlético Madrid against Villarreal before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.60	+8.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.98	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Atlético Madrid	46.7%	50.9%	−4.2 pp	2.14
Draw	30.0%	26.2%	+3.9 pp	3.33
Villarreal	23.3%	23.0%	+0.3 pp	4.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Atlético Madrid to score	80.8%	79.2%	+1.6 pp	1.24
Atlético Madrid not to score	19.2%	20.8%	−1.6 pp	5.21
Villarreal to score	68.0%	64.5%	+3.5 pp	1.47
Villarreal not to score	32.0%	35.5%	−3.5 pp	3.12
Both teams to score	56.7%	53.3%	+3.4 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.3%	46.7%	−3.4 pp	2.31
Atlético Madrid 2+ goals	46.3%	50.0%	−3.7 pp	2.16
Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal	53.7%	50.0%	+3.7 pp	1.86
Villarreal 2+ goals	28.4%	29.1%	−0.7 pp	3.52
Villarreal at most 1 goal	71.6%	70.9%	+0.7 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	75.7%	+1.3 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	24.3%	−1.3 pp	4.34
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	51.3%	−2.7 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	48.7%	+2.7 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Atlético Madrid sample: 20 matches
Villarreal sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.