Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 14:00
13d 12h to kick-offEspanyol – Atlético Madrid
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Espanyol
- 32%
- Draw
- 31%
- Atlético Madrid
- 37%
| Espanyol | Draw | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.11 | 3.27 | 2.68 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Atlético Madrid
37% Atlético Madrid to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 14th
- Atlético Madrid attack v Espanyol defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- Atlético Madrid defence v Espanyol attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.38
- Espanyol v Atlético Madrid
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Espanyol | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 11th | (better) 1.72 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.36 · 11th | (better) 1.02 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.12 · 7th | (better) +0.70 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.35 · 8th | (better) 1.86 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.35 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Atlético Madrid clean sheet
- 25%
- Atlético Madrid 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Espanyol sample
- 20 matches
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Espanyol
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Atlético Madrid
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.