Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:15
Full timeAtlético Madrid 2:1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Atlético Madrid won 2–1. The biggest difference was Real Madrid's attack: 0.30 xG against 1.55 projected (−1.25). Atlético Madrid produced 2.35 xG against 1.51 projected (+0.84).
Goals
- 53' Alejandro Grimaldo (pen.) Atlético Madrid · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 59' Jonathan David Atlético Madrid · 0.55 xG chance 2–0
- 89' Antonio Rüdiger Real Madrid · 0.07 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Atlético Madrid
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Real Madrid
- 37%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Real Madrid produced 1.25 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 8
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 1.26
- 0.22
- Set-piece xG
- 0.35
- 0.10
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.60 for Atlético Madrid and 0.32 for Real Madrid.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.75 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Atlético Madrid
- Real Madrid
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.61 xG created 1.14 xGA
3.03 xG created 0.88 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to win | 3.60 | +26.5% | Won |
| Real Madrid not to score | 6.50 | +21.2% | Lost |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +16.0% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +7.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.80 | +7.3% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 2.20 | +1.4% | Won |
| Atlético Madrid to score | 1.25 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 35.1% | 26.4% | +8.8 pp | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28.2% | 25.0% | +3.3 pp | 3.54 |
| Real Madrid | 36.6% | 48.7% | −12.0 pp | 2.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to score | 80.7% | 75.0% | +5.7 pp | 1.24 |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 19.3% | 25.0% | −5.7 pp | 5.17 |
| Real Madrid to score | 81.4% | 85.4% | −4.0 pp | 1.23 |
| Real Madrid not to score | 18.6% | 14.6% | +4.0 pp | 5.36 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 64.5% | +2.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.9% | 35.5% | −2.6 pp | 3.04 |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 46.1% | 42.3% | +3.8 pp | 2.17 |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 53.9% | 57.7% | −3.8 pp | 1.86 |
| Real Madrid 2+ goals | 47.3% | 57.7% | −10.4 pp | 2.12 |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 52.7% | 42.3% | +10.4 pp | 1.90 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | 84.2% | +0.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 15.8% | −0.7 pp | 6.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 65.6% | −4.6 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 34.4% | +4.6 pp | 2.56 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.