Monday, 24/08/2026 at 21:30
Full timeMálaga 1:1 Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Málaga's attack: 1.95 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.66).
Goals
- 21' Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Deportivo La Coruña · 1.00 xG chance 0–1
- 34' Chupete (pen.) Málaga · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Málaga
- 45%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 22%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Málaga produced 0.66 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 6
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 1.01
- 1.07
- Set-piece xG
- 0.15
- 0.06
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.18 for Málaga and 1.11 for Deportivo La Coruña.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
19 shots · 3.11 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Málaga
- Deportivo La Coruña
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga to win | 2.35 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 2.75 | +4.1% | Lost |
| Málaga to score | 1.36 | +2.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 | +2.1% | Won |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 1.29 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 44.5% | 40.4% | +4.1 pp | 2.24 |
| Draw | 33.0% | 31.7% | +1.4 pp | 3.03 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 22.4% | 27.9% | −5.5 pp | 4.46 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga to score | 75.2% | 68.7% | +6.5 pp | 1.33 |
| Málaga not to score | 24.8% | 31.3% | −6.5 pp | 4.04 |
| Deportivo La Coruña to score | 61.3% | 62.5% | −1.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Deportivo La Coruña not to score | 38.7% | 37.5% | +1.2 pp | 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 45.3% | +2.7 pp | 2.08 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.9% | 54.7% | −2.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Málaga 2+ goals | 37.9% | 33.7% | +4.1 pp | 2.64 |
| Málaga at most 1 goal | 62.1% | 66.3% | −4.1 pp | 1.61 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 2+ goals | 21.5% | 26.9% | −5.4 pp | 4.65 |
| Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal | 78.5% | 73.1% | +5.4 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | 63.6% | +4.4 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 36.4% | −4.4 pp | 3.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 36.4% | +0.9 pp | 2.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 63.6% | −0.9 pp | 1.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Málaga sample
- 1 match
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Málaga has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- Deportivo La Coruña has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.