Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Rayo Vallecano – Villarreal
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rayo Vallecano
- 40%
- Draw
- 29%
- Villarreal
- 30%
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.40 | 3.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Rayo Vallecano
40% Rayo Vallecano to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 8th
- Rayo Vallecano attack v Villarreal defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 4th
- Rayo Vallecano defence v Villarreal attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs +1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.31
- Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.27 · 10th | (better) 2.38 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 16th | (better) 1.25 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.50 · 13th | (better) +1.12 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.12 · 16th | (better) 1.92 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +1.51 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
- 24%
- Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Villarreal sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Villarreal
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.