Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 14:00
Full timeOsasuna 1:1 Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Osasuna's attack: 0.53 xG against 1.34 projected (−0.81).
Goals
- 16' Ante Budimir Osasuna · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
- 50' Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Osasuna
- 39%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Rayo Vallecano
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Osasuna produced 0.81 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 19
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.35
- 0.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.19
- 0.60
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.55 for Osasuna and 1.19 for Rayo Vallecano.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 1.72 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Osasuna
- Rayo Vallecano
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.36 xG created 1.45 xGA
1.31 xG created 1.97 xGA
- L 1.89 created, 2.19 conceded against Sevilla
- D 0.42 created, 2.00 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- L 1.21 created, 3.04 conceded against Barcelona
- W 1.61 created, 0.48 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 1.21 created, 2.62 conceded against Real Madrid
- W 1.52 created, 1.49 conceded against Espanyol
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +4.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +1.0% | Won |
| Osasuna to win | 2.55 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 39.3% | 37.0% | +2.3 pp | 2.54 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.6% | +3.0 pp | 3.17 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 29.1% | 34.3% | −5.2 pp | 3.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to score | 76.6% | 72.3% | +4.2 pp | 1.31 |
| Osasuna not to score | 23.4% | 27.7% | −4.2 pp | 4.27 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score | 70.8% | 70.9% | −0.1 pp | 1.41 |
| Rayo Vallecano not to score | 29.2% | 29.1% | +0.1 pp | 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 52.0% | +4.1 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.9% | 48.0% | −4.1 pp | 2.28 |
| Osasuna 2+ goals | 39.7% | 37.5% | +2.2 pp | 2.52 |
| Osasuna at most 1 goal | 60.3% | 62.5% | −2.2 pp | 1.66 |
| Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | 32.0% | 35.5% | −3.5 pp | 3.13 |
| Rayo Vallecano at most 1 goal | 68.0% | 64.5% | +3.5 pp | 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | 72.9% | +2.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 27.1% | −2.3 pp | 4.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 47.4% | −1.2 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 52.6% | +1.2 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Osasuna sample
- 20 matches
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.