Real Madrid 2:1 Rayo Vallecano: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 01/02/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · La Liga

Real Madrid Home 2.14 xG · 16 shots

Rayo Vallecano Away 0.96 xG · 11 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

15' Vinícius Júnior Real Madrid · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
49' Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano · 0.09 xG chance 1–1
90' Kylian Mbappé (pen.) Real Madrid · 0.82 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano

Shots: 16; 11
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 12; 4
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.96
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.01
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for Real Madrid and 0.96 for Rayo Vallecano.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.18 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Real Madrid

2.31 xG created 1.15 xGA

L 2.29 created, 1.55 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 1.83 created, 1.36 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
W 2.33 created, 1.56 conceded against Sevilla
W 2.94 created, 1.06 conceded against Real Betis
W 2.88 created, 0.80 conceded against Levante UD
W 1.58 created, 0.58 conceded against Villarreal

Rayo Vallecano

1.28 xG created 1.28 xGA

D 1.55 created, 0.76 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.92 created, 2.40 conceded against Elche
D 0.89 created, 0.77 conceded against Getafe
W 2.37 created, 0.72 conceded against Mallorca
L 1.18 created, 1.87 conceded against Celta Vigo
L 0.78 created, 1.18 conceded against Osasuna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Real Madrid: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Real Madrid 09/11/2025 xG 1.20 – 0.98

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.