Real Madrid 3:1 Villarreal: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 04/10/2025 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Real Madrid Home 3.52 xG · 26 shots

Villarreal Away 1.00 xG · 9 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

47' Vinícius Júnior Real Madrid · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
69' Vinícius Júnior (pen.) Real Madrid · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
73' Georges Mikautadze Villarreal · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
81' Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid · 0.30 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Real Madrid Villarreal

Shots: 26; 9
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 16; 3
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.30; 1.02
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.73 for Real Madrid and 0.99 for Villarreal.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 4.59 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Real Madrid
Villarreal
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Real Madrid

2.11 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 2.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Real Oviedo
W 1.82 created, 0.72 conceded against Mallorca
W 2.42 created, 2.23 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 1.18 created, 0.96 conceded against Espanyol
W 3.94 created, 1.60 conceded against Levante UD
L 0.66 created, 2.34 conceded against Atlético Madrid

Villarreal

1.69 xG created 1.03 xGA

W 2.30 created, 0.14 conceded against Girona FC
D 1.15 created, 0.68 conceded against Celta Vigo
L 0.97 created, 1.17 conceded against Atlético Madrid
W 2.55 created, 1.80 conceded against Osasuna
W 1.95 created, 0.97 conceded against Sevilla
W 1.22 created, 1.44 conceded against Athletic Club

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.