Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 21:30
Full timeAcadémico Viseu FC 2:1 Vitória SC
Vitória SC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Académico Viseu FC won 2–1. The biggest difference was Académico Viseu FC's attack: 1.83 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.77). Vitória SC produced 2.10 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.75).
Goals
- 53' Lorougnon Gohi Académico Viseu FC · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
- 67' Gonçalo Nogueira Vitória SC · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Mohamed Bouldini Académico Viseu FC · 0.87 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Académico Viseu FC
- 27% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Vitória SC
- 41%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Académico Viseu FC produced 0.77 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 22
- On target
- 4
- 7
- Inside the box
- 9
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.98
- 1.66
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.41
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.06 for Académico Viseu FC and 2.10 for Vitória SC.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 4.14 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Académico Viseu FC
- Vitória SC
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.95 xG created 1.80 xGA
1.76 xG created 0.67 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.32 | +5.8% | Lost |
| Académico Viseu FC to win | 3.97 | +5.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Académico Viseu FC | 26.6% | 24.3% | +2.4 pp | 3.75 |
| Draw | 31.9% | 29.0% | +2.9 pp | 3.14 |
| Vitória SC | 41.5% | 46.7% | −5.2 pp | 2.41 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 43.2% | +1.0 pp | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 56.8% | −1.0 pp | 1.79 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Académico Viseu FC sample
- 5 matches
- Vitória SC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Académico Viseu FC has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.