Marítimo 2:2 Académico Viseu FC: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Marítimo Home 1.28 xG · 11 shots

Académico Viseu FC Away 1.84 xG · 13 shots

22 Académico Viseu FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Marítimo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Académico Viseu FC's attack: 1.84 xG against 1.04 projected (+0.80).

Goals

25' André Clóvis Académico Viseu FC · 0.24 xG chance 0–1
45' Soufiane Messeguem Académico Viseu FC · 0.49 xG chance 0–2
70' Paulo Henrique Marítimo · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
88' Adrián Butzke (pen.) Marítimo · 0.82 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Marítimo: 43%
Draw: 32% What happened
Académico Viseu FC: 25%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Marítimo 1.39 1.28 -0.11

Académico Viseu FC 1.04 1.84 +0.80

Académico Viseu FC produced 0.80 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Marítimo Académico Viseu FC

Shots: 11; 13
On target: 4; 7
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.13; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.39; 1.13
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.50 for Marítimo and 1.85 for Académico Viseu FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 3.16 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Marítimo
Académico Viseu FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Marítimo

1.45 xG created 0.62 xGA

W 1.28 created, 0.64 conceded against Casa Pia
W 1.61 created, 0.59 conceded against Famalicão

Académico Viseu FC

0.88 xG created 2.19 xGA

D 1.18 created, 3.11 conceded against Benfica
L 0.58 created, 1.27 conceded against Santa Clara

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Marítimo against Académico Viseu FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.95	+6.3%	Won
Draw	3.25	+2.5%	Won
Académico Viseu FC to score	1.50	+1.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Marítimo	43.1%	47.0%	−3.9 pp	2.32
Draw	31.5%	28.9%	+2.6 pp	3.17
Académico Viseu FC	25.3%	24.1%	+1.2 pp	3.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Marítimo to score	77.9%	75.0%	+2.9 pp	1.28
Marítimo not to score	22.1%	25.0%	−2.9 pp	4.52
Académico Viseu FC to score	67.6%	62.5%	+5.1 pp	1.48
Académico Viseu FC not to score	32.4%	37.5%	−5.1 pp	3.09
Both teams to score	54.5%	48.0%	+6.5 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.5%	52.0%	−6.5 pp	2.20
Marítimo 2+ goals	41.5%	42.3%	−0.8 pp	2.41
Marítimo at most 1 goal	58.5%	57.7%	+0.8 pp	1.71
Académico Viseu FC 2+ goals	28.0%	26.9%	+1.1 pp	3.57
Académico Viseu FC at most 1 goal	72.0%	73.1%	−1.1 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	74.2%	68.7%	+5.4 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	25.8%	31.3%	−5.4 pp	3.87
Over 2.5 goals	44.7%	43.7%	+1.0 pp	2.24
Under 2.5 goals	55.3%	56.3%	−1.0 pp	1.81

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Marítimo sample: 2 matches
Académico Viseu FC sample: 2 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Marítimo has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Académico Viseu FC has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.