Benfica 3:1 Gil Vicente: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Benfica Home 2.90 xG · 17 shots

Gil Vicente Away 1.11 xG · 4 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Benfica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Benfica's attack: 2.90 xG against 1.70 projected (+1.20). Gil Vicente produced 1.11 xG against 0.78 projected (+0.33).

Goals

7' Héctor Hernández Gil Vicente · 0.62 xG chance 0–1
29' Vangelis Pavlidis Benfica · 0.50 xG chance 1–1
87' Vangelis Pavlidis (pen.) Benfica · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
90' Gianluca Prestianni Benfica · 0.15 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Benfica: 59% What happened
Draw: 27%
Gil Vicente: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Benfica 1.70 2.90 +1.20

Gil Vicente 0.78 1.11 +0.33

Benfica produced 1.20 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Benfica Gil Vicente

Shots: 17; 4
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 12; 3
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.29
Open play xG: 1.91; 1.14
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Benfica's shots add up to 2.93 xG and Gil Vicente's to 1.14; the published figures are 2.90 and 1.11.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 4.07 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Benfica
Gil Vicente
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Benfica

2.78 xG created 0.62 xGA

W 4.22 created, 1.52 conceded against Estoril Praia
D 3.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
W 3.04 created, 0.12 conceded against Casa Pia
W 2.03 created, 0.36 conceded against Estoril Praia
W 1.31 created, 0.12 conceded against Marítimo
W 2.99 created, 0.39 conceded against Moreirense

Gil Vicente

1.18 xG created 0.76 xGA

L 0.81 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.68 created, 1.65 conceded against Sporting
W 1.66 created, 0.19 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.74 created, 0.76 conceded against Casa Pia
D 0.28 created, 0.23 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.88 created, 0.33 conceded against Académico Viseu FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Benfica: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Benfica against Gil Vicente before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Gil Vicente to win	21.00	+190.7%	Lost
Benfica not to score	13.00	+104.1%	Lost
Draw	7.50	+104.1%	Lost
Gil Vicente 2+ goals	11.00	+94.0%	Lost
Benfica at most 1 goal	3.75	+77.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+49.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+45.1%	Lost
Gil Vicente to score	2.50	+43.1%	Won
Both teams to score	2.50	+24.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Benfica	58.9%	82.9%	−23.9 pp	1.70
Draw	27.2%	12.6%	+14.6 pp	3.67
Gil Vicente	13.8%	4.5%	+9.3 pp	7.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Benfica to score	84.3%	92.6%	−8.3 pp	1.19
Benfica not to score	15.7%	7.4%	+8.3 pp	6.37
Gil Vicente to score	57.2%	37.5%	+19.7 pp	1.75
Gil Vicente not to score	42.8%	62.5%	−19.7 pp	2.34
Both teams to score	49.9%	37.5%	+12.4 pp	2.01
Both teams not to score	50.1%	62.5%	−12.4 pp	1.99
Benfica 2+ goals	52.6%	75.0%	−22.4 pp	1.90
Benfica at most 1 goal	47.4%	25.0%	+22.4 pp	2.11
Gil Vicente 2+ goals	17.6%	8.7%	+8.9 pp	5.67
Gil Vicente at most 1 goal	82.4%	91.3%	−8.9 pp	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	75.2%	84.2%	−9.1 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.8%	15.8%	+9.1 pp	4.02
Over 2.5 goals	46.3%	65.2%	−18.9 pp	2.16
Under 2.5 goals	53.7%	34.8%	+18.9 pp	1.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Benfica sample: 20 matches
Gil Vicente sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.