Monday, 24/08/2026 at 21:15
Full timeGil Vicente 2:0 Casa Pia
Gil Vicente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Gil Vicente's attack: 1.74 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.28).
Goals
- 20' Gil Martins Gil Vicente · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Héctor Hernández (pen.) Gil Vicente · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Gil Vicente
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Casa Pia
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Gil Vicente produced 0.28 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.80
- 0.68
- Set-piece xG
- 0.18
- 0.09
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.95 for Gil Vicente and 0.76 for Casa Pia.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.57 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Gil Vicente
- Casa Pia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.12 xG created 1.15 xGA
0.95 xG created 1.46 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +7.9% | Lost |
| Casa Pia to score | 1.80 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 51.6% | 55.3% | −3.7 pp | 1.94 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 26.8% | +4.0 pp | 3.24 |
| Casa Pia | 17.6% | 17.9% | −0.3 pp | 5.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente to score | 79.4% | 78.3% | +1.0 pp | 1.26 |
| Gil Vicente not to score | 20.6% | 21.7% | −1.0 pp | 4.84 |
| Casa Pia to score | 58.3% | 51.5% | +6.8 pp | 1.72 |
| Casa Pia not to score | 41.7% | 48.5% | −6.8 pp | 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 44.3% | +3.8 pp | 2.08 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.9% | 55.7% | −3.8 pp | 1.93 |
| Gil Vicente 2+ goals | 44.1% | 46.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.27 |
| Gil Vicente at most 1 goal | 55.9% | 53.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Casa Pia 2+ goals | 18.4% | 18.9% | −0.5 pp | 5.43 |
| Casa Pia at most 1 goal | 81.6% | 81.1% | +0.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | 66.3% | +4.0 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.7% | −4.0 pp | 3.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 41.0% | −1.1 pp | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 59.0% | +1.1 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Gil Vicente sample
- 20 matches
- Casa Pia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.