CD Nacional 1:3 FC Alverca: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

CD Nacional Home 2.20 xG · 13 shots

FC Alverca Away 1.16 xG · 10 shots

13 The result went against the chances

CD Nacional were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. FC Alverca won 3–1. The biggest difference was CD Nacional's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.94).

Goals

34' Francisco Chissumba FC Alverca · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
36' Dawda Camara FC Alverca · 0.08 xG chance 0–2
42' Dawda Camara FC Alverca · 0.55 xG chance 0–3
81' Matchoi Djaló CD Nacional · 0.84 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CD Nacional: 38%
Draw: 33%
FC Alverca: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CD Nacional 1.26 2.20 +0.94

FC Alverca 1.09 1.16 +0.07

CD Nacional produced 0.94 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CD Nacional FC Alverca

Shots: 13; 10
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 10; 5
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.27; 1.13
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.25 for CD Nacional and 1.16 for FC Alverca.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 3.44 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

CD Nacional
FC Alverca
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CD Nacional

0.93 xG created 1.98 xGA

W 0.93 created, 1.38 conceded against Vitória SC
D 1.23 created, 1.43 conceded against Santa Clara
W 2.08 created, 0.82 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.42 created, 3.14 conceded against Vitória SC
L 0.83 created, 2.10 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
L 0.08 created, 3.00 conceded against Sporting

FC Alverca

0.96 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.46 created, 0.56 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.66 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.75 created, 1.29 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
L 0.41 created, 2.12 conceded against Sporting
D 0.41 created, 1.41 conceded against Santa Clara
L 1.08 created, 2.27 conceded against Sporting Braga

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CD Nacional: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CD Nacional against FC Alverca before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+11.1%	Lost
CD Nacional to win	2.90	+10.6%	Lost
FC Alverca at most 1 goal	1.53	+7.3%	Lost
FC Alverca not to score	3.50	+6.9%	Lost
CD Nacional to score	1.36	+1.9%	Won
CD Nacional 2+ goals	2.75	+1.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CD Nacional	38.2%	32.7%	+5.5 pp	2.62
Draw	32.7%	27.9%	+4.8 pp	3.06
FC Alverca	29.2%	39.5%	−10.3 pp	3.43

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CD Nacional to score	74.7%	68.7%	+6.0 pp	1.34
CD Nacional not to score	25.3%	31.3%	−6.0 pp	3.95
FC Alverca to score	69.5%	73.1%	−3.7 pp	1.44
FC Alverca not to score	30.5%	26.9%	+3.7 pp	3.27
Both teams to score	53.8%	52.0%	+1.8 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.2%	48.0%	−1.8 pp	2.17
CD Nacional 2+ goals	36.8%	33.7%	+3.0 pp	2.72
CD Nacional at most 1 goal	63.2%	66.3%	−3.0 pp	1.58
FC Alverca 2+ goals	30.0%	39.2%	−9.2 pp	3.33
FC Alverca at most 1 goal	70.0%	60.8%	+9.2 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	70.9%	+1.7 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	29.1%	−1.7 pp	3.66
Over 2.5 goals	42.6%	46.1%	−3.5 pp	2.35
Under 2.5 goals	57.4%	53.9%	+3.5 pp	1.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CD Nacional sample: 20 matches
FC Alverca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.