Sporting 3:1 FC Alverca: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 21:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Sporting Home 2.12 xG · 16 shots

FC Alverca Away 0.41 xG · 10 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Sporting were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Sporting's attack: 2.12 xG against 1.60 projected (+0.52). FC Alverca produced 0.41 xG against 0.87 projected (−0.46).

Goals

2' Maximiliano Araújo Sporting · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
55' Matheus Mendes (o.g.) Sporting · 0.13 xG chance 2–0
60' Luis Javier Suárez Sporting · 1.00 xG chance 3–0
88' Figueiredo FC Alverca · 0.10 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sporting: 54% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC Alverca: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sporting 1.60 2.12 +0.52

FC Alverca 0.87 0.41 -0.46

Sporting produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sporting FC Alverca

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 8; 3
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.04
Open play xG: 2.14; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Sporting's shots add up to 2.33 xG and FC Alverca's to 0.40; the published figures are 2.12 and 0.41.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.73 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sporting
FC Alverca
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sporting

2.15 xG created 0.90 xGA

D 1.67 created, 1.35 conceded against Tondela
W 4.22 created, 0.52 conceded against Vitória SC
W 1.58 created, 0.70 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.65 created, 0.68 conceded against Gil Vicente
D 2.63 created, 1.01 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 1.12 created, 1.12 conceded against Vitória SC

FC Alverca

1.17 xG created 1.14 xGA

W 1.06 created, 0.88 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.79 created, 0.62 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.27 created, 0.90 conceded against Estoril Praia
L 0.46 created, 0.56 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.66 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Porto
D 1.75 created, 1.29 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sporting: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sporting against FC Alverca before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sporting not to score	13.00	+131.0%	Lost
FC Alverca to win	12.00	+108.9%	Lost
Sporting at most 1 goal	3.50	+78.6%	Lost
Draw	6.00	+73.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+51.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+41.2%	Lost
FC Alverca 2+ goals	5.50	+16.1%	Lost
FC Alverca to score	1.80	+9.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.95	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting	53.7%	76.6%	−22.9 pp	1.86
Draw	28.9%	15.6%	+13.3 pp	3.46
FC Alverca	17.4%	7.8%	+9.6 pp	5.75

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting to score	82.2%	92.6%	−10.4 pp	1.22
Sporting not to score	17.8%	7.4%	+10.4 pp	5.63
FC Alverca to score	60.8%	51.5%	+9.4 pp	1.64
FC Alverca not to score	39.2%	48.5%	−9.4 pp	2.55
Both teams to score	51.8%	48.0%	+3.8 pp	1.93
Both teams not to score	48.2%	52.0%	−3.8 pp	2.07
Sporting 2+ goals	49.0%	73.1%	−24.1 pp	2.04
Sporting at most 1 goal	51.0%	26.9%	+24.1 pp	1.96
FC Alverca 2+ goals	21.1%	17.2%	+3.9 pp	4.74
FC Alverca at most 1 goal	78.9%	82.8%	−3.9 pp	1.27
Over 1.5 goals	74.7%	84.2%	−9.5 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.3%	15.8%	+9.5 pp	3.95
Over 2.5 goals	45.7%	63.8%	−18.1 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.3%	36.2%	+18.1 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sporting sample: 20 matches
FC Alverca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.