CF Estrela Amadora 2:1 Sporting Braga: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Thursday, 10/09/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

CF Estrela Amadora Home 0.57 xG · 9 shots

Sporting Braga Away 0.61 xG · 9 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Sporting Braga were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. CF Estrela Amadora won 2–1. The biggest difference was Sporting Braga's attack: 0.61 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.49). CF Estrela Amadora produced 0.57 xG against 1.02 projected (−0.45).

Goals

5' Gabriel Martínez Sporting Braga · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
45' Ianis Stoica CF Estrela Amadora · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
56' Ianis Stoica CF Estrela Amadora · 0.11 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CF Estrela Amadora: 30% What happened
Draw: 35%
Sporting Braga: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CF Estrela Amadora 1.02 0.57 -0.45

Sporting Braga 1.10 0.61 -0.49

Sporting Braga produced 0.49 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CF Estrela Amadora Sporting Braga

Shots: 9; 9
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.50; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.61 for Sporting Braga.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

18 shots · 1.17 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

CF Estrela Amadora
Sporting Braga
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CF Estrela Amadora

1.05 xG created 1.90 xGA

D 0.25 created, 2.00 conceded against Famalicão
D 0.73 created, 2.41 conceded against Sporting Braga
D 1.01 created, 2.63 conceded against Sporting
D 1.29 created, 1.75 conceded against FC Alverca
W 2.10 created, 0.83 conceded against CD Nacional
D 0.94 created, 1.80 conceded against Famalicão

Sporting Braga

1.27 xG created 1.06 xGA

D 0.41 created, 0.89 conceded against Estoril Praia
D 0.21 created, 3.19 conceded against Benfica
D 2.41 created, 0.73 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
D 1.50 created, 0.21 conceded against Moreirense
W 0.83 created, 0.23 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.27 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Alverca

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CF Estrela Amadora: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CF Estrela Amadora sample: 20 matches
Sporting Braga sample: 20 matches
Computed: 13 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.