Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:00
26d 18h to kick-offLe Havre – Paris Saint-Germain
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Le Havre
- 19%
- Draw
- 26%
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 55%
| Le Havre | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.23 | 3.80 | 1.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Paris Saint-Germain
55% Paris Saint-Germain to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 10th
- Paris Saint-Germain attack v Le Havre defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- Paris Saint-Germain defence v Le Havre attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.09 – 1.86
- Le Havre v Paris Saint-Germain
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Le Havre | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 13th | (better) 2.28 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.61 · 8th | (better) 1.14 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 11th | (better) +1.14 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 12th | (better) 2.06 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.19 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet
- 30%
- Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 1:2
- 11.6%
- 0:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Le Havre sample
- 20 matches
- Paris Saint-Germain sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Le Havre
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Paris Saint-Germain
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.