Paris Saint-Germain 2:0 Olympique Lyonnais: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Monday, 26/10/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain Home 0.87 xG · 17 shots

Olympique Lyonnais Away 0.62 xG · 8 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Paris Saint-Germain's attack: 0.87 xG against 1.94 projected (−1.07). Olympique Lyonnais produced 0.62 xG against 1.04 projected (−0.42).

Goals

72' Senny Mayulu Paris Saint-Germain · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
84' Mika Godts Paris Saint-Germain · 0.11 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paris Saint-Germain: 58% What happened
Draw: 25%
Olympique Lyonnais: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paris Saint-Germain 1.94 0.87 -1.07

Olympique Lyonnais 1.04 0.62 -0.42

Paris Saint-Germain produced 1.07 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Lyonnais

Shots: 17; 8
On target: 10; 5
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.84; 0.42
Set-piece xG: 0.02; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.87 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.63 for Olympique Lyonnais.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 1.51 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Paris Saint-Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paris Saint-Germain

2.66 xG created 1.22 xGA

D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Lille
L 2.32 created, 0.51 conceded against AS Monaco
W 1.16 created, 1.24 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 4.33 created, 1.80 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 4.10 created, 1.55 conceded against Le Mans
W 2.61 created, 0.97 conceded against RC Strasbourg

Olympique Lyonnais

1.78 xG created 0.99 xGA

D 1.75 created, 0.69 conceded against Le Havre
W 2.85 created, 0.71 conceded against Auxerre
D 0.50 created, 0.30 conceded against Paris FC
W 3.13 created, 1.37 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 0.99 created, 1.37 conceded against RC Lens
W 1.46 created, 1.50 conceded against Nice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paris Saint-Germain against Olympique Lyonnais before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Olympique Lyonnais to win	9.00	+52.9%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	3.50	+40.5%	Lost
Draw	5.50	+38.7%	Lost
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	11.00	+34.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+31.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+15.0%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais to score	1.50	+1.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris Saint-Germain	57.8%	72.4%	−14.6 pp	1.73
Draw	25.2%	17.1%	+8.1 pp	3.96
Olympique Lyonnais	17.0%	10.5%	+6.5 pp	5.89

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris Saint-Germain to score	87.8%	91.3%	−3.5 pp	1.14
Paris Saint-Germain not to score	12.2%	8.7%	+3.5 pp	8.17
Olympique Lyonnais to score	67.6%	62.5%	+5.1 pp	1.48
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	32.4%	37.5%	−5.1 pp	3.08
Both teams to score	60.7%	57.7%	+3.1 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	42.3%	−3.1 pp	2.55
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals	59.8%	73.1%	−13.3 pp	1.67
Paris Saint-Germain at most 1 goal	40.2%	26.9%	+13.3 pp	2.49
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	28.0%	26.9%	+1.1 pp	3.58
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	72.0%	73.1%	−1.1 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	83.6%	86.4%	−2.9 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.4%	13.6%	+2.9 pp	6.09
Over 2.5 goals	59.0%	70.1%	−11.1 pp	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	41.0%	29.9%	+11.1 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.