xgEdge

Expected goals

Le Mans expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Ligue 1 · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Le Mans's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ligue 1 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Le Mans xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.70 xG per match
#8/18
Attack (xG per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Paris Saint-Germain 2.28
#2 RC Lens 2.27
#3 Toulouse 2.19
#4 Stade Brestois 1.94
#5 Paris FC 1.87
#6 Olympique Lyonnais 1.79
#7 Stade Rennais 1.76
#8 Le Mans 1.70
#9 Angers 1.61
#10 Olympique de Marseille 1.56
#11 Auxerre 1.41
#12 Troyes 1.40
#13 Le Havre 1.39
#14 Lille 1.39
#15 AS Monaco 1.28
#16 RC Strasbourg 1.24
#17 Lorient 1.19
#18 Nice 1.08
League avg
1.63
Total
8.52 5 matches
Defence
1.91 xGA per match
#12/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Paris FC 0.65
#2 Paris Saint-Germain 1.14
#3 Olympique Lyonnais 1.17
#4 Stade Brestois 1.19
#5 AS Monaco 1.31
#6 Lorient 1.39
#7 Angers 1.41
#8 Le Havre 1.61
#9 Toulouse 1.64
=10 Lille 1.75
=10 Nice 1.75
#12 Le Mans 1.91
#13 RC Lens 1.92
=14 RC Strasbourg 1.96
=14 Troyes 1.96
#16 Auxerre 2.05
#17 Stade Rennais 2.27
#18 Olympique de Marseille 2.28
League avg
1.63
Total
9.55 5 matches
xG difference
-0.21 xGD per match
=9/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Paris FC +1.22
#2 Paris Saint-Germain +1.14
#3 Stade Brestois +0.75
#4 Olympique Lyonnais +0.62
#5 Toulouse +0.55
#6 RC Lens +0.35
#7 Angers +0.20
#8 AS Monaco -0.02
=9 Le Mans -0.21
=9 Lorient -0.21
#11 Le Havre -0.22
#12 Lille -0.36
#13 Stade Rennais -0.51
#14 Troyes -0.56
#15 Auxerre -0.63
#16 Nice -0.67
#17 Olympique de Marseille -0.72
#18 RC Strasbourg -0.72
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.03 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.27 xPts per match
#9/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Paris FC 2.17
#2 Paris Saint-Germain 2.06
#3 Olympique Lyonnais 1.81
#4 Stade Brestois 1.78
#5 Toulouse 1.74
#6 RC Lens 1.49
#7 Angers 1.49
#8 AS Monaco 1.42
#9 Le Mans 1.27
#10 Lille 1.23
#11 Lorient 1.21
#12 Le Havre 1.20
#13 Auxerre 1.18
#14 Olympique de Marseille 1.09
#15 Stade Rennais 1.08
#16 Troyes 0.96
#17 Nice 0.94
#18 RC Strasbourg 0.84
League avg
1.39
Total
6.37 vs 6 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Le Mans's underlying numbers sit close to the Ligue 1 average. They rank =9 for xG difference at -0.21 per match, built on the league's best chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 9 goals are 0.48 above 8.52 xG, while 6 points are 0.37 below 6.37 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.52 xG from penalties
9 8.52 +0.48 scored 0.48 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 9.55 -0.55 conceded 0.55 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
6 6.37 -0.37 0.37 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Le Mans are 0.48 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +1.33, against Stade Brestois on Sat 22/08.

Goals
9
xG
8.52
Gap
+0.48
Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.33 +0.27 -0.01 -0.60 +0.48 +1.33 -1.06 -0.28 -0.59 +1.08 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Le Mans: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Stade Brestois 2 0.67 +1.33 +1.33
Sun 30/08 Stade Rennais 2 3.06 -1.06 +0.27
Sat 05/09 Nice 1 1.28 -0.28 -0.01
Sun 13/09 RC Lens 2 2.59 -0.59 -0.60
Sat 19/09 Lorient 2 0.92 +1.08 +0.48

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Le Mans xG trend

Current form +0.06 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 5 matches. The worst was against Stade Brestois on Sat 22/08 (-1.85).

npxG · last 5
1.60
npxGA · last 5
1.54
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.85 Sat 22/08 +0.31 Sun 30/08 +0.22 Sat 05/09 +1.77 Sun 13/09 -0.13 Sat 19/09 +0.06 season avg
Le Mans: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Stade Brestois 0.68 2.53 -1.85 -1.85
Sun 30/08 Stade Rennais 2.20 1.89 +0.31 -0.77
Sat 05/09 Nice 1.27 1.05 +0.22 -0.44
Sun 13/09 RC Lens 3.01 1.24 +1.77 +0.11
Sat 19/09 Lorient 0.84 0.97 -0.13 +0.06

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.60 npxG and 1.54 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 7 hardest of 18 in Ligue 1
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 18

  1. Lorient Home −0.12
  2. RC Lens Home +0.41
  3. Nice Away −0.31
  4. Stade Rennais Away −0.02
  5. Stade Brestois Home +0.13

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Le Mans shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. Le Mans take 10.4 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.15 npxG a shot (league 0.11), =16 in Ligue 1 for volume and #1 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 65%), and set pieces produce 8% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.4 shots per match
=16/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Paris Saint-Germain 21.2
#2 Stade Brestois 19.2
#3 Stade Rennais 16.2
#4 Le Havre 15.6
#5 Angers 15.0
=6 RC Lens 14.8
=6 Toulouse 14.8
=6 Troyes 14.8
#9 Olympique Lyonnais 13.4
=10 Olympique de Marseille 13.2
=10 Paris FC 13.2
#12 Lille 12.8
#13 Auxerre 12.0
#14 Nice 11.8
#15 RC Strasbourg 11.6
=16 Le Mans 10.4
=16 Lorient 10.4
#18 AS Monaco 10.2
League avg
13.9
Total
52 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.15 npxG per shot
#1/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Le Mans 0.15
#2 Olympique Lyonnais 0.13
#3 Toulouse 0.13
#4 AS Monaco 0.12
#5 Paris FC 0.11
#6 RC Lens 0.11
#7 RC Strasbourg 0.11
#8 Angers 0.11
#9 Paris Saint-Germain 0.11
#10 Lorient 0.11
#11 Lille 0.11
#12 Olympique de Marseille 0.10
#13 Stade Rennais 0.09
#14 Nice 0.09
#15 Stade Brestois 0.09
#16 Auxerre 0.09
#17 Le Havre 0.08
#18 Troyes 0.07
League avg
0.11
Total
8.00 npxG from 52 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.2 shots per match
#15/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Paris FC 9.6
#2 Paris Saint-Germain 10.0
=3 Olympique Lyonnais 11.2
=3 RC Lens 11.2
#5 Stade Brestois 11.6
#6 Nice 13.0
#7 Lorient 13.2
#8 Auxerre 13.6
#9 Troyes 13.8
#10 Le Havre 14.4
=11 AS Monaco 15.2
=11 Toulouse 15.2
#13 Stade Rennais 15.6
#14 Lille 16.0
#15 Le Mans 16.2
#16 Angers 16.4
#17 Olympique de Marseille 17.0
#18 RC Strasbourg 17.4
League avg
13.9
Total
81 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#8/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ligue 1, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Paris FC 0.07
#2 Angers 0.08
#3 Lorient 0.08
#4 AS Monaco 0.08
#5 Stade Brestois 0.09
#6 Le Havre 0.09
#7 RC Strasbourg 0.09
#8 Le Mans 0.09
#9 Olympique Lyonnais 0.10
#10 Toulouse 0.10
#11 Lille 0.11
#12 Paris Saint-Germain 0.11
#13 Nice 0.12
#14 Olympique de Marseille 0.12
#15 Auxerre 0.13
#16 Stade Rennais 0.13
#17 Troyes 0.15
#18 RC Lens 0.16
League avg
0.11
Total
7.68 npxGA from 81 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 65%

From 32 of 52 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

78% allowed inside the box

League avg 65%

From 63 of 81 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

92% open play · 8% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 0.6 of 8.0 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

62% open play · 38% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.9 of 7.8 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Le Mans home and away xG

Le Mans per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 1.39 2.17
xGA / match 1.77 2.12
xGD / match -0.38 +0.05
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.17 1.42

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Le Mans match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.70
xGA / match
1.91
xGD / match
-0.21
Points
6 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Lorient H xG 0.92 xGA 0.97 xGD -0.05
  2. Sun 13/09 RC Lens H Best underlying xG 2.59 xGA 1.62 xGD +0.97
  3. Sat 05/09 Nice A xG 1.28 xGA 1.12 xGD +0.16
  4. Sun 30/08 Stade Rennais A xG 3.06 P xGA 3.12 P xGD -0.06
  5. Sat 22/08 Stade Brestois H Weakest underlying xG 0.67 xGA 2.72 xGD -2.05

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.12. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Le Mans in Ligue 1

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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