Olympique Lyonnais 3:1 Auxerre: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais Home 2.85 xG · 21 shots

Auxerre Away 0.71 xG · 8 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympique Lyonnais were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Olympique Lyonnais's attack: 2.85 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.49). Auxerre produced 0.71 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.27).

Goals

28' Felix Bacher Olympique Lyonnais · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
31' Zachary Athekame Olympique Lyonnais · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
42' Cameron Archer Auxerre · 0.12 xG chance 2–1
53' Ernest Nuamah Olympique Lyonnais · 0.05 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympique Lyonnais: 44% What happened
Draw: 32%
Auxerre: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympique Lyonnais 1.36 2.85 +1.49

Auxerre 0.98 0.71 -0.27

Olympique Lyonnais produced 1.49 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympique Lyonnais Auxerre

Shots: 21; 8
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 14; 4
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.08
Open play xG: 2.67; 0.67
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.97 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.69 for Auxerre.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique Lyonnais
Auxerre
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique Lyonnais

1.87 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 2.12 created, 0.52 conceded against Auxerre
W 3.17 created, 0.84 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against Toulouse
L 1.91 created, 1.54 conceded against RC Lens
W 0.70 created, 2.77 conceded against Toulouse
D 1.75 created, 0.69 conceded against Le Havre

Auxerre

1.26 xG created 2.22 xGA

L 0.52 created, 2.12 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 2.03 created, 2.20 conceded against Angers
W 0.84 created, 1.33 conceded against Nice
W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympique Lyonnais: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympique Lyonnais against Auxerre before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Auxerre to win	7.50	+81.3%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+51.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+38.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+36.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympique Lyonnais	44.0%	67.5%	−23.6 pp	2.28
Draw	31.9%	19.9%	+12.0 pp	3.14
Auxerre	24.2%	12.6%	+11.6 pp	4.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.4%	52.0%	+0.4 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	48.0%	−0.4 pp	2.10
Over 1.5 goals	72.3%	81.1%	−8.8 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.7%	18.9%	+8.8 pp	3.61
Over 2.5 goals	42.4%	60.2%	−17.8 pp	2.36
Under 2.5 goals	57.6%	39.8%	+17.8 pp	1.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.