Stade Brestois 2:2 Toulouse: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Stade Brestois Home 3.04 xG · 25 shots

Toulouse Away 1.14 xG · 6 shots

22 Stade Brestois had the better chances, but it finished level

Toulouse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Stade Brestois's attack: 3.04 xG against 1.11 projected (+1.93).

Goals

9' Jacen Russell Rowe Toulouse · 0.55 xG chance 0–1
18' Kamory Doumbia Stade Brestois · 0.32 xG chance 1–1
62' Christ Tapé Toulouse · 0.25 xG chance 1–2
90' Ludovic Ajorque Stade Brestois · 0.35 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Stade Brestois: 29%
Draw: 32% What happened
Toulouse: 38%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Stade Brestois 1.11 3.04 +1.93

Toulouse 1.29 1.14 -0.15

Stade Brestois produced 1.93 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Stade Brestois Toulouse

Shots: 25; 6
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 16; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.58; 0.87
Set-piece xG: 2.30; 0.25
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.85 for Stade Brestois and 1.12 for Toulouse.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 4.00 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Stade Brestois
Toulouse
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stade Brestois

1.43 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 0.25 created, 2.76 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.79 created, 1.86 conceded against Paris FC
L 0.17 created, 1.49 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
L 3.06 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 1.57 created, 0.68 conceded against Angers
D 2.72 created, 0.67 conceded against Le Mans

Toulouse

1.40 xG created 1.58 xGA

L 0.96 created, 2.31 conceded against Lille
L 0.41 created, 3.76 conceded against RC Lens
D 1.75 created, 0.74 conceded against AS Monaco
W 1.36 created, 0.41 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
L 2.77 created, 0.70 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stade Brestois: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Stade Brestois against Toulouse before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+9.9%	Won
Stade Brestois at most 1 goal	1.50	+4.1%	Lost
Stade Brestois not to score	3.40	+1.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+1.3%	Lost
Toulouse to win	2.63	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Brestois	29.2%	36.1%	−6.8 pp	3.42
Draw	32.3%	27.9%	+4.5 pp	3.09
Toulouse	38.4%	36.1%	+2.4 pp	2.60

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Stade Brestois to score	70.0%	72.3%	−2.3 pp	1.43
Stade Brestois not to score	30.0%	27.7%	+2.3 pp	3.34
Toulouse to score	75.1%	72.3%	+2.8 pp	1.33
Toulouse not to score	24.9%	27.7%	−2.8 pp	4.01
Both teams to score	54.5%	53.3%	+1.2 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.5%	46.7%	−1.2 pp	2.20
Stade Brestois 2+ goals	30.6%	37.5%	−6.9 pp	3.27
Stade Brestois at most 1 goal	69.4%	62.5%	+6.9 pp	1.44
Toulouse 2+ goals	37.7%	37.5%	+0.2 pp	2.66
Toulouse at most 1 goal	62.3%	62.5%	−0.2 pp	1.60
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	72.9%	+0.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	27.1%	−0.5 pp	3.76
Over 2.5 goals	43.7%	47.4%	−3.6 pp	2.29
Under 2.5 goals	56.3%	52.6%	+3.6 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Stade Brestois sample: 20 matches
Toulouse sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.