Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:15
Full timeToulouse 0:0 Troyes
Toulouse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Toulouse's attack: 0.65 xG against 1.70 projected (−1.05). Troyes produced 0.36 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.89).
The model against the result
- Toulouse
- 47%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Troyes
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Toulouse produced 1.05 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 8
- On target
- 3
- 0
- Inside the box
- 6
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.63
- 0.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.65 for Toulouse and 0.36 for Troyes.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
15 shots · 1.01 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Toulouse
- Troyes
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes to win | 6.50 | +64.5% | Lost |
| Troyes 2+ goals | 3.50 | +26.3% | Lost |
| Toulouse not to score | 8.00 | +26.1% | Won |
| Toulouse at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +18.7% | Won |
| Draw | 4.20 | +17.6% | Won |
| Troyes to score | 1.50 | +11.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +8.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 46.7% | 63.0% | −16.3 pp | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 22.5% | +5.5 pp | 3.57 |
| Troyes | 25.3% | 14.5% | +10.8 pp | 3.95 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to score | 84.2% | 88.1% | −3.8 pp | 1.19 |
| Toulouse not to score | 15.8% | 11.9% | +3.8 pp | 6.34 |
| Troyes to score | 74.2% | 62.5% | +11.7 pp | 1.35 |
| Troyes not to score | 25.8% | 37.5% | −11.7 pp | 3.87 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 54.7% | +9.4 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.9% | 45.3% | −9.4 pp | 2.78 |
| Toulouse 2+ goals | 52.5% | 62.5% | −10.0 pp | 1.90 |
| Toulouse at most 1 goal | 47.5% | 37.5% | +10.0 pp | 2.11 |
| Troyes 2+ goals | 36.1% | 26.9% | +9.2 pp | 2.77 |
| Troyes at most 1 goal | 63.9% | 73.1% | −9.2 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | 81.1% | +2.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.7% | 18.9% | −2.2 pp | 5.99 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 60.2% | −1.9 pp | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 39.8% | +1.9 pp | 2.40 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Toulouse sample
- 20 matches
- Troyes sample
- 7 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Troyes has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.