Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeKisvárda FC 0:1 Paksi FC
Paksi FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Paksi FC's attack: 0.74 xG against 2.08 projected (−1.34).
The model against the result
- Kisvárda FC
- 29%
- Draw
- 24%
- Paksi FC
- 46% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Paksi FC produced 1.34 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 13
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.06
Recent form
1.35 xG created 2.52 xGA
- L 1.38 created, 2.19 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 2.54 created, 2.17 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- L 0.65 created, 2.89 conceded against Újpest
- L 0.79 created, 2.86 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 2.00 created, 1.68 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 0.73 created, 3.31 conceded against MTK Budapest
2.30 xG created 2.44 xGA
- W 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- W 3.05 created, 0.93 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
- L 2.30 created, 3.67 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- W 2.22 created, 2.12 conceded against Újpest
- D 0.68 created, 3.96 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- L 2.97 created, 2.99 conceded against Debreceni VSC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvárda FC | 29.3% | 31.1% | −1.7 pp | 3.41 |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.5% | −0.2 pp | 4.12 |
| Paksi FC | 46.4% | 44.4% | +2.0 pp | 2.16 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 75.9% | 68.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Both teams not to score | 24.1% | 31.3% | −7.2 pp | 4.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.8% | 84.2% | +7.5 pp | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.2% | 15.8% | −7.5 pp | 12.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.6% | 65.2% | +9.4 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.4% | 34.8% | −9.4 pp | 3.94 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kisvárda FC sample
- 20 matches
- Paksi FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.