Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:45
31d 22h to kick-offMTK Budapest – Budapest Honvéd FC
Model updated 6 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MTK Budapest
- 45%
- Draw
- 25%
- Budapest Honvéd FC
- 30%
| MTK Budapest | Draw | Budapest Honvéd FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.97 | 3.36 |
- Total goals
- 3.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MTK Budapest
45% MTK Budapest to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 5th
- MTK Budapest attack v Budapest Honvéd FC defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 10th
- MTK Budapest defence v Budapest Honvéd FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.45 vs -0.51
- xGD per match, last 3
- Projected goals
- 1.96 – 1.61
- MTK Budapest v Budapest Honvéd FC
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 3 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honvéd FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.14 · 7th | 1.23 · 11th from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · joint 5th | (better) 1.74 · 4th from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.37 · 5th | -0.51 · 8th from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 5th | 1.08 · 8th from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.45 | -0.51 from 3 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- MTK Budapest clean sheet
- 18%
- MTK Budapest 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 29%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 2:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MTK Budapest sample
- 20 matches
- Budapest Honvéd FC sample
- 3 matches
- Home xG sample · MTK Budapest
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Budapest Honvéd FC
- 1 match
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 18:30
Warnings
- Budapest Honvéd FC has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.