Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 19:30
6d 20h to kick-offPaksi FC – MTK Budapest
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Paksi FC
- 42%
- Draw
- 24%
- MTK Budapest
- 34%
| Paksi FC | Draw | MTK Budapest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.36 | 4.23 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 3.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78%
- Both teams to score
- 79%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Paksi FC
42% Paksi FC to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Paksi FC attack v MTK Budapest defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 8th
- Paksi FC defence v MTK Budapest attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.55 vs +0.45
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.10 – 1.90
- Paksi FC v MTK Budapest
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Paksi FC | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.78 · 9th | (better) 2.14 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 2.87 · 12th | (better) 1.77 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | -1.09 · 12th | (better) +0.37 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.85 · 12th | (better) 1.62 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.55 | (better) +0.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 25% of the model's distribution.
- Paksi FC clean sheet
- 13%
- Paksi FC 2+ goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 22%
- Both teams to score: no
- 21%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:2
- 8.5%
- 2:1
- 8.3%
- 1:1
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Paksi FC sample
- 20 matches
- MTK Budapest sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Paksi FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MTK Budapest
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.