Újpest 2:1 Zalaegerszegi TE: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Újpest Home 2.08 xG

Zalaegerszegi TE Away 2.39 xG

21 The result went against the chances

Újpest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Zalaegerszegi TE's attack: 2.39 xG against 1.32 projected (+1.07). Újpest produced 2.08 xG against 1.69 projected (+0.39).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Újpest: 45% What happened
Draw: 28%
Zalaegerszegi TE: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Újpest 1.69 2.08 +0.39

Zalaegerszegi TE 1.32 2.39 +1.07

Zalaegerszegi TE produced 1.07 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Újpest Zalaegerszegi TE

Shots: 15; 19
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 9; 13
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Újpest

2.26 xG created 2.03 xGA

W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Kisvárda FC
D 0.97 created, 2.49 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.12 created, 2.22 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.64 created, 1.56 conceded against Vasas
D 2.82 created, 3.00 conceded against Ferencváros TC

Zalaegerszegi TE

0.96 xG created 1.77 xGA

L 1.17 created, 2.03 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.93 created, 1.70 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 0.42 created, 2.36 conceded against Vasas
L 1.36 created, 2.11 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 0.61 created, 1.02 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC
W 1.28 created, 1.38 conceded against Puskás Akadémia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Újpest: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Újpest against Zalaegerszegi TE before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Zalaegerszegi TE to win	3.90	+6.4%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+4.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Újpest	44.9%	51.5%	−6.6 pp	2.23
Draw	27.9%	24.7%	+3.1 pp	3.59
Zalaegerszegi TE	27.3%	23.8%	+3.5 pp	3.67

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.4%	58.9%	+6.5 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.6%	41.1%	−6.5 pp	2.89
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	81.1%	+3.1 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	18.9%	−3.1 pp	6.31
Over 2.5 goals	59.8%	59.9%	−0.2 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.2%	40.1%	+0.2 pp	2.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Újpest sample: 20 matches
Zalaegerszegi TE sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.