Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:45
26d 0h to kick-offZalaegerszegi TE – MTK Budapest
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zalaegerszegi TE
- 36%
- Draw
- 28%
- MTK Budapest
- 36%
| Zalaegerszegi TE | Draw | MTK Budapest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.74 | 3.61 | 2.79 |
- Total goals
- 3.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Zalaegerszegi TE to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 8th
- Zalaegerszegi TE attack v MTK Budapest defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 8th
- Zalaegerszegi TE defence v MTK Budapest attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.61 vs +0.45
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.57
- Zalaegerszegi TE v MTK Budapest
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zalaegerszegi TE | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.21 · 12th | (better) 2.14 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.79 · 7th | (better) 1.77 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.58 · 9th | (better) +0.37 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 0.96 · 11th | (better) 1.62 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.61 | (better) +0.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet
- 18%
- Zalaegerszegi TE 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zalaegerszegi TE sample
- 20 matches
- MTK Budapest sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zalaegerszegi TE
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MTK Budapest
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.