Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 17h to kick-offDAC 1904 – MFK Zemplín Michalovce
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- DAC 1904
- 65%
- Draw
- 22%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 14%
| DAC 1904 | Draw | MFK Zemplín Michalovce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.55 | 4.60 | 7.29 |
- Total goals
- 3.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans DAC 1904
65% DAC 1904 to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- DAC 1904 attack v MFK Zemplín Michalovce defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- DAC 1904 defence v MFK Zemplín Michalovce attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.26 – 1.06
- DAC 1904 v MFK Zemplín Michalovce
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | DAC 1904 | MFK Zemplín Michalovce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 3rd | 1.11 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 4th | 1.84 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 3rd | -0.73 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.91 · 3rd | 0.97 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.63 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- DAC 1904 clean sheet
- 32%
- DAC 1904 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 2:0
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · DAC 1904
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.