Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC Košice 2:0 MFK Ružomberok
FC Košice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- FC Košice
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- MFK Ružomberok
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.83 xG created 2.30 xGA
- W 2.16 created, 2.30 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 2.04 created, 1.57 conceded against AS Trenčín
- W 0.93 created, 2.43 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 0.92 created, 4.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- D 2.51 created, 2.44 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.41 created, 0.40 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.55 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 0.42 created, 0.67 conceded against MFK Skalica
- D 2.41 created, 1.21 conceded against DAC 1904
- L 1.55 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 1.11 created, 2.52 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.95 created, 0.74 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L 1.87 created, 2.78 conceded against AS Trenčín
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Ružomberok 2+ goals | 3.25 | +48.9% | Lost |
| MFK Ružomberok to win | 5.50 | +45.0% | Lost |
| MFK Ružomberok to score | 1.44 | +16.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +11.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +7.9% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +1.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Košice | 48.7% | 61.3% | −12.5 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 24.9% | 21.7% | +3.2 pp | 4.02 |
| MFK Ružomberok | 26.4% | 17.1% | +9.3 pp | 3.79 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Košice to score | 88.9% | 86.6% | +2.3 pp | 1.12 |
| FC Košice not to score | 11.1% | 13.4% | −2.3 pp | 9.00 |
| MFK Ružomberok to score | 80.5% | 64.5% | +15.9 pp | 1.24 |
| MFK Ružomberok not to score | 19.5% | 35.5% | −15.9 pp | 5.12 |
| Both teams to score | 72.7% | 60.8% | +11.9 pp | 1.38 |
| Both teams not to score | 27.3% | 39.2% | −11.9 pp | 3.67 |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 62.3% | 64.5% | −2.2 pp | 1.61 |
| FC Košice at most 1 goal | 37.7% | 35.5% | +2.2 pp | 2.65 |
| MFK Ružomberok 2+ goals | 45.8% | 29.1% | +16.7 pp | 2.18 |
| MFK Ružomberok at most 1 goal | 54.2% | 70.9% | −16.7 pp | 1.85 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.0% | 83.0% | +7.0 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.0% | 17.0% | −7.0 pp | 9.98 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 66.3% | +4.5 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.2% | 33.7% | −4.5 pp | 3.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.