Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
26d 6h to kick-offFC Spartak Trnava – KFC Komárno
Model updated 5 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- KFC Komárno
- 17%
| FC Spartak Trnava | Draw | KFC Komárno | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.08 | 5.74 |
- Total goals
- 3.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Trnava
58% FC Spartak Trnava to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 5th
- FC Spartak Trnava attack v KFC Komárno defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 8th
- FC Spartak Trnava defence v KFC Komárno attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.03 – 1.11
- FC Spartak Trnava v KFC Komárno
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Spartak Trnava | KFC Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.57 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.66 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.96 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.32 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.61 · 1st from 4 matches | +0.34 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.25 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.59 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.31 | +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Trnava clean sheet
- 30%
- FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Spartak Trnava
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · KFC Komárno
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.