Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 10h to kick-offKFC Komárno – MFK Ružomberok
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KFC Komárno
- 50%
- Draw
- 27%
- MFK Ružomberok
- 23%
| KFC Komárno | Draw | MFK Ružomberok | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.00 | 3.74 | 4.30 |
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KFC Komárno
50% KFC Komárno to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 7th
- KFC Komárno attack v MFK Ružomberok defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- KFC Komárno defence v MFK Ružomberok attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.07 vs -0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.25
- KFC Komárno v MFK Ružomberok
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KFC Komárno | MFK Ružomberok |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.66 · 8th | (better) 1.78 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.32 · 3rd | 1.84 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.34 · 5th | -0.06 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.59 · 5th | 1.38 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.07 | -0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- KFC Komárno clean sheet
- 26%
- KFC Komárno 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.7%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KFC Komárno
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Ružomberok
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.