Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 13h to kick-offMFK Skalica – AS Trenčín
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Skalica
- 41%
- Draw
- 27%
- AS Trenčín
- 32%
| MFK Skalica | Draw | AS Trenčín | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.43 | 3.75 | 3.11 |
- Total goals
- 3.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MFK Skalica
41% MFK Skalica to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 12th
- MFK Skalica attack v AS Trenčín defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 7th
- MFK Skalica defence v AS Trenčín attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs -0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.77 – 1.56
- MFK Skalica v AS Trenčín
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Skalica | AS Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 10th | (better) 1.72 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.98 · 8th | 2.23 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.71 · 9th | (better) -0.50 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 10th | (better) 1.09 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) -0.26 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- MFK Skalica clean sheet
- 18%
- MFK Skalica 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- AS Trenčín sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Skalica
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · AS Trenčín
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.