Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:30
Full timeMFK Skalica 1:1 ŠK Slovan Bratislava
ŠK Slovan Bratislava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was ŠK Slovan Bratislava's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.78 projected (+1.09). MFK Skalica produced 0.57 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.64).
The model against the result
- MFK Skalica
- 23%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 50%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
ŠK Slovan Bratislava produced 1.09 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 18
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 5
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.16
Recent form
1.28 xG created 1.98 xGA
- W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice
- D 0.34 created, 2.63 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 0.77 created, 1.54 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L 1.10 created, 2.00 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
2.41 xG created 1.15 xGA
- W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 4.66 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Košice
- L 2.45 created, 0.46 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 0.35 created, 1.91 conceded against DAC 1904
- D 2.98 created, 1.18 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- W 1.47 created, 1.33 conceded against KFC Komárno
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.50 | +22.3% | Won |
| MFK Skalica to win | 5.25 | +21.5% | Lost |
| MFK Skalica 2+ goals | 3.25 | +12.7% | Lost |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +12.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +6.7% | Lost |
| MFK Skalica to score | 1.44 | +5.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Skalica | 23.1% | 17.9% | +5.3 pp | 4.32 |
| Draw | 27.2% | 20.9% | +6.3 pp | 3.68 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | 49.7% | 61.2% | −11.6 pp | 2.01 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Skalica to score | 73.1% | 64.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.37 |
| MFK Skalica not to score | 26.9% | 35.5% | −8.6 pp | 3.71 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava to score | 85.5% | 85.5% | −0.0 pp | 1.17 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp | 6.89 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 55.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.0% | 44.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.78 |
| MFK Skalica 2+ goals | 34.7% | 29.1% | +5.6 pp | 2.88 |
| MFK Skalica at most 1 goal | 65.3% | 70.9% | −5.6 pp | 1.53 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals | 55.1% | 62.5% | −7.4 pp | 1.81 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 44.9% | 37.5% | +7.4 pp | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | 79.4% | +4.4 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.1% | 20.6% | −4.4 pp | 6.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 60.8% | −1.4 pp | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 39.2% | +1.4 pp | 2.46 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.