Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:00
3d 21h to kick-offMFK Zemplín Michalovce – DAC 1904
Model updated 6 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 27%
- Draw
- 27%
- DAC 1904
- 45%
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | Draw | DAC 1904 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.64 | 3.67 | 2.21 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans DAC 1904
45% DAC 1904 to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- DAC 1904 attack v MFK Zemplín Michalovce defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- DAC 1904 defence v MFK Zemplín Michalovce attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.75
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce v DAC 1904
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MFK Zemplín Michalovce | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.11 · 11th | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 6th | (better) 1.38 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.73 · 10th | (better) +0.73 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.97 · 11th | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- DAC 1904 clean sheet
- 23%
- DAC 1904 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 2:1
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · DAC 1904
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.