Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 5h to kick-offFC CSKA 1948 Sofia – FK Spartak Varna
Model updated 7 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- FK Spartak Varna
- 16%
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | Draw | FK Spartak Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.70 | 3.97 | 6.20 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
59% FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 14th
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia attack v FK Spartak Varna defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 10th
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia defence v FK Spartak Varna attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.27 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.93 – 0.99
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia v FK Spartak Varna
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | FK Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 4th | 0.95 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.31 · 7th | 2.01 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.35 · 5th | -1.06 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 5th | 0.85 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.27 | -1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet
- 34%
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Spartak Varna
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.