Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:15
Full timeFK Spartak Varna 0:1 Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Spartak Varna's attack: 2.19 xG against 1.31 projected (+0.88). Lokomotiv Sofia produced 1.01 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.61).
The model against the result
- FK Spartak Varna
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 43% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Spartak Varna produced 0.88 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 8
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.08
Recent form
0.73 xG created 2.30 xGA
- D 0.79 created, 2.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 0.44 created, 0.80 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 0.73 created, 1.04 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 3.70 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 0.79 created, 3.50 conceded against CSKA Sofia
1.30 xG created 1.99 xGA
- D 0.91 created, 0.60 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.64 created, 2.54 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 0.71 created, 0.91 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 2.14 created, 2.57 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 0.75 created, 3.62 conceded against Ludogorets
- D 1.66 created, 1.71 conceded against Cherno More Varna
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia to win | 2.50 | +7.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +3.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Spartak Varna | 28.6% | 33.5% | −5.0 pp | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.9% | −0.4 pp | 3.51 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 42.9% | 37.6% | +5.3 pp | 2.33 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 55.7% | +8.4 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.8% | 44.3% | −8.4 pp | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 75.0% | +7.9 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 25.0% | −7.9 pp | 5.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 51.3% | +6.4 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 48.7% | −6.4 pp | 2.37 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.