FK Dunav Ruse 2:2 Botev Vratsa: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 13:00

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Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FK Dunav Ruse Home

Botev Vratsa Away

FK Dunav Ruse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 2–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Dunav Ruse: 36%
Draw: 32% What happened
Botev Vratsa: 32%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Dunav Ruse

1.16 xG created 2.31 xGA

L 1.13 created, 2.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
L 0.81 created, 2.12 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.34 created, 1.81 conceded against CSKA Sofia
L 1.20 created, 2.59 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
D 2.57 created, 2.14 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 0.88 created, 2.62 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

Botev Vratsa

0.93 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 1.16 created, 0.89 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 1.17 created, 3.72 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.93 created, 1.09 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 0.54 created, 0.77 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 0.99 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
D 0.79 created, 2.01 conceded against Levski Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Dunav Ruse against Botev Vratsa before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.91	+7.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.40	+5.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.25	+3.4%	Won
Draw	3.20	+1.9%	Won
FK Dunav Ruse to win	2.80	+0.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Dunav Ruse	36.0%	33.6%	+2.4 pp	2.78
Draw	31.8%	29.4%	+2.4 pp	3.14
Botev Vratsa	32.2%	36.9%	−4.8 pp	3.11

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.2%	48.5%	+7.7 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.8%	51.5%	−7.7 pp	2.28
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	66.3%	+8.8 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	33.7%	−8.8 pp	4.00
Over 2.5 goals	45.9%	41.8%	+4.2 pp	2.18
Under 2.5 goals	54.1%	58.2%	−4.2 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Dunav Ruse sample: 6 matches
Botev Vratsa sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Dunav Ruse has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.