Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
33d 15h to kick-offLokomotiv Sofia – Botev Plovdiv
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 23%
- Draw
- 27%
- Botev Plovdiv
- 50%
| Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.38 | 3.65 | 2.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Botev Plovdiv
50% Botev Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 12th
- Botev Plovdiv attack v Lokomotiv Sofia defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- Botev Plovdiv defence v Lokomotiv Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.06 vs -0.94
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.76
- Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Plovdiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 8th | (better) 1.57 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.10 · 13th | (better) 1.01 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.00 · 12th | (better) +0.56 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 1.80 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.94 | (better) +0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Botev Plovdiv clean sheet
- 28%
- Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Botev Plovdiv
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.