Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 16h to kick-offLudogorets – Arda Kardzhali
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Ludogorets
- 51%
- Draw
- 29%
- Arda Kardzhali
- 19%
| Ludogorets | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.95 | 3.43 | 5.14 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Ludogorets
- Model
- 51.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 59.6%
- Probability gap
- −8.2 pp
- Edge
- −20.3%
- Fair odds
- 1.95
- Market odds
- 1.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.04
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.3%
- Probability gap
- +4.8 pp
- Edge
- +10.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.43
- Market odds
- 3.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.61
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
-
Arda Kardzhali
- Model
- 19.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.1%
- Probability gap
- +3.4 pp
- Edge
- +11.9%
- Fair odds
- 5.14
- Market odds
- 5.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.39
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
Outcomes with value
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Arda Kardzhali to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Arda Kardzhali to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Ludogorets at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
Model 24.5% vs. bookmaker 18.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Ludogorets
51% Ludogorets to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Ludogorets attack v Arda Kardzhali defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 6th
- Ludogorets defence v Arda Kardzhali attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.39 vs +0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 0.95
- Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ludogorets | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.42 · 1st | 1.55 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 5th | 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.39 · 1st | +0.29 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.19 · 1st | 1.57 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.40 | +0.46 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Ludogorets clean sheet
- 35%
- Ludogorets 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.0%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 10.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ludogorets
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Arda Kardzhali
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.