Derry City 3:3 Shamrock Rovers: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Derry City Home 1.20 xG

Shamrock Rovers Away 0.89 xG

33 Derry City had the better chances, but it finished level

Derry City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Shamrock Rovers's attack: 0.89 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Derry City: 38%
Draw: 31% What happened
Shamrock Rovers: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Derry City 1.36 1.20 -0.16

Shamrock Rovers 1.20 0.89 -0.31

Shamrock Rovers produced 0.31 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Derry City Shamrock Rovers

Shots: 17; 6
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Derry City

1.31 xG created 1.56 xGA

D 1.31 created, 1.45 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
W 1.45 created, 0.41 conceded against Drogheda United
L 1.54 created, 3.29 conceded against Waterford FC
D 0.50 created, 1.67 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 1.68 created, 0.23 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 1.39 created, 2.32 conceded against Bohemian FC

Shamrock Rovers

1.68 xG created 1.33 xGA

W 1.10 created, 0.47 conceded against Waterford FC
D 1.45 created, 1.31 conceded against Derry City
W 2.49 created, 2.40 conceded against Galway United
W 1.62 created, 1.12 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 0.76 created, 0.94 conceded against Drogheda United
W 2.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Dundalk FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Derry City: 2 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Derry City against Shamrock Rovers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+1.5%	Won
Draw	3.20	+1.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Derry City	38.2%	35.6%	+2.7 pp	2.62
Draw	31.2%	28.9%	+2.3 pp	3.21
Shamrock Rovers	30.6%	35.6%	−5.0 pp	3.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.0%	53.3%	+4.7 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	42.0%	46.7%	−4.7 pp	2.38
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	72.3%	+4.5 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	27.7%	−4.5 pp	4.32
Over 2.5 goals	48.4%	46.1%	+2.3 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.6%	53.9%	−2.3 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Derry City sample: 20 matches
Shamrock Rovers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.