Sligo Rovers 0:0 Waterford FC: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Sligo Rovers Home 0.66 xG

Waterford FC Away 1.59 xG

00 Waterford FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Waterford FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Sligo Rovers's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.70 projected (−1.04).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sligo Rovers: 36%
Draw: 26% What happened
Waterford FC: 37%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sligo Rovers 1.70 0.66 -1.04

Waterford FC 1.72 1.59 -0.13

Sligo Rovers produced 1.04 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sligo Rovers Waterford FC

Shots: 13; 19
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 10; 13
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sligo Rovers

1.31 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 1.81 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne
L 1.12 created, 1.62 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 1.67 created, 2.28 conceded against Galway United
D 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against Drogheda United
D 1.35 created, 1.74 conceded against Dundalk FC
L 0.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Derry City

Waterford FC

1.80 xG created 1.56 xGA

W 2.15 created, 1.47 conceded against Dundalk FC
W 3.29 created, 1.54 conceded against Derry City
D 1.43 created, 2.55 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against Galway United
W 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against Shelbourne
W 1.66 created, 1.04 conceded against Bohemian FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sligo Rovers: 3 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sligo Rovers against Waterford FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals	2.20	+15.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+13.9%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+13.3%	Lost
Sligo Rovers to score	1.25	+5.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+3.9%	Lost
Sligo Rovers to win	2.80	+1.8%	Lost
Waterford FC 2+ goals	1.91	+1.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sligo Rovers	36.4%	32.6%	+3.8 pp	2.75
Draw	26.4%	26.8%	−0.5 pp	3.79
Waterford FC	37.3%	40.6%	−3.3 pp	2.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sligo Rovers to score	84.2%	75.0%	+9.2 pp	1.19
Sligo Rovers not to score	15.8%	25.0%	−9.2 pp	6.33
Waterford FC to score	84.6%	79.2%	+5.4 pp	1.18
Waterford FC not to score	15.4%	20.8%	−5.4 pp	6.48
Both teams to score	72.5%	58.9%	+13.6 pp	1.38
Both teams not to score	27.5%	41.1%	−13.6 pp	3.64
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals	52.5%	42.3%	+10.1 pp	1.91
Sligo Rovers at most 1 goal	47.5%	57.7%	−10.1 pp	2.10
Waterford FC 2+ goals	53.1%	48.5%	+4.6 pp	1.88
Waterford FC at most 1 goal	46.9%	51.5%	−4.6 pp	2.13
Over 1.5 goals	89.0%	79.4%	+9.6 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	11.0%	20.6%	−9.6 pp	9.09
Over 2.5 goals	68.7%	56.0%	+12.7 pp	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	31.3%	44.0%	−12.7 pp	3.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sligo Rovers sample: 20 matches
Waterford FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.