xgEdge

Expected goals

Waterford FC expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier Division (Ireland) · after 32 matches · updated 1 Oct

Waterford FC's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier Division (Ireland) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Waterford FC xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.40 xG per match
#6/10
Attack (xG per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.78
#2 Bohemian FC 1.63
#3 Dundalk FC 1.58
#4 Shamrock Rovers 1.41
#5 Shelbourne 1.40
#6 Waterford FC 1.40
#7 Galway United 1.35
#8 Derry City 1.18
#9 Drogheda United 1.16
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.03
League avg
1.39
Total
44.64 32 matches
Defence
1.77 xGA per match
#9/10
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.93
#2 Bohemian FC 1.10
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.14
#4 Derry City 1.18
#5 Shelbourne 1.20
#6 Galway United 1.51
#7 Dundalk FC 1.57
#8 Drogheda United 1.60
#9 Waterford FC 1.77
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.88
League avg
1.39
Total
56.77 32 matches
xG difference
-0.38 xGD per match
#8/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic +0.85
#2 Bohemian FC +0.53
#3 Shamrock Rovers +0.27
#4 Shelbourne +0.20
#5 Dundalk FC +0.01
#6 Derry City +0.01
#7 Galway United -0.16
#8 Waterford FC -0.38
#9 Drogheda United -0.44
#10 Sligo Rovers -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
-12.13 32 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.17 xPts per match
#8/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.87
#2 Bohemian FC 1.75
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.58
#4 Shelbourne 1.48
#5 Derry City 1.37
#6 Dundalk FC 1.37
#7 Galway United 1.28
#8 Waterford FC 1.17
#9 Drogheda United 1.10
#10 Sligo Rovers 0.87
League avg
1.38
Total
37.37 vs 34 actual pts

What the xG says

Waterford FC's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier Division (Ireland). They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.38 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 44 goals are 0.64 below 44.64 xG, while 34 points are 3.37 below 37.37 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
44 44.64 -0.64 scored 0.64 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
54 56.77 -2.77 conceded 2.77 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
34 37.37 -3.37 3.37 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Waterford FC are 0.64 goals below their xG after 32 matches. The gap was widest at -3.76, against Dundalk FC on Fri 13/03.

Goals
44
xG
44.64
Gap
-0.64
Fri 06/02 Fri 13/02 Fri 20/02 Fri 27/02 Fri 06/03 Fri 13/03 Mon 16/03 Fri 20/03 Fri 03/04 Mon 06/04 Sat 18/04 Fri 24/04 Fri 01/05 Mon 04/05 Fri 08/05 Fri 15/05 Mon 18/05 Fri 22/05 Fri 29/05 Fri 12/06 Fri 19/06 Fri 26/06 Fri 03/07 Fri 10/07 Sat 25/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Fri 21/08 Fri 28/08 Fri 11/09 Mon 14/09 Fri 18/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.61 -0.24 -2.92 -2.36 -3.13 -3.76 -2.72 -3.02 -2.83 -2.10 -3.28 -3.01 -3.65 -3.01 -3.35 -3.50 -3.21 -2.48 -0.82 +0.06 -0.41 +0.44 +1.15 +0.72 +0.10 -0.57 +0.77 -0.82 -1.09 -2.13 -1.63 -0.64 +0.61 -0.85 -2.68 +0.56 -0.77 -0.63 +1.04 -0.30 +0.19 +0.73 -1.18 +0.27 -0.64 +0.64 -0.34 -0.15 +0.29 +0.73 +1.66 +0.88 -0.47 +0.85 +0.71 -0.43 -0.62 -0.67 +1.34 -1.59 -0.27 -1.04 +0.50 +0.99 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Waterford FC: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 06/02 Shelbourne 1 0.39 +0.61 +0.61
Fri 13/02 Drogheda United 0 0.85 -0.85 -0.24
Fri 20/02 Sligo Rovers 0 2.68 -2.68 -2.92
Fri 27/02 Derry City 2 1.44 +0.56 -2.36
Fri 06/03 Bohemian FC 0 0.77 -0.77 -3.13
Fri 13/03 Dundalk FC 0 0.63 -0.63 -3.76
Mon 16/03 Galway United 3 1.96 +1.04 -2.72
Fri 20/03 St. Patrick's Athletic 0 0.30 -0.30 -3.02
Fri 03/04 Shamrock Rovers 1 0.81 +0.19 -2.83
Mon 06/04 Bohemian FC 1 0.27 +0.73 -2.10
Sat 18/04 Sligo Rovers 0 1.18 -1.18 -3.28
Fri 24/04 Galway United 1 0.73 +0.27 -3.01
Fri 01/05 Shamrock Rovers 0 0.64 -0.64 -3.65
Mon 04/05 Dundalk FC 3 2.36 +0.64 -3.01
Fri 08/05 St. Patrick's Athletic 1 1.34 -0.34 -3.35
Fri 15/05 Derry City 2 2.15 -0.15 -3.50
Mon 18/05 Drogheda United 2 1.71 +0.29 -3.21
Fri 22/05 Shelbourne 1 0.27 +0.73 -2.48
Fri 29/05 Drogheda United 3 1.34 +1.66 -0.82
Fri 12/06 Sligo Rovers 4 3.12 +0.88 +0.06
Fri 19/06 Shamrock Rovers 0 0.47 -0.47 -0.41
Fri 26/06 Dundalk FC 3 2.15 +0.85 +0.44
Fri 03/07 Derry City 4 3.29 +0.71 +1.15
Fri 10/07 St. Patrick's Athletic 1 1.43 -0.43 +0.72
Sat 25/07 Galway United 0 0.62 -0.62 +0.10
Sun 02/08 Shelbourne 1 1.67 -0.67 -0.57
Sun 09/08 Bohemian FC 3 1.66 +1.34 +0.77
Fri 21/08 Sligo Rovers 0 1.59 -1.59 -0.82
Fri 28/08 St. Patrick's Athletic 2 2.27 -0.27 -1.09
Fri 11/09 Dundalk FC 1 2.04 -1.04 -2.13
Mon 14/09 Derry City 2 1.50 +0.50 -1.63
Fri 18/09 Shamrock Rovers 2 1.01 +0.99 -0.64

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Waterford FC xG trend

Current form +0.58 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 32 matches. The worst was against Dundalk FC on Fri 13/03 (-2.58).

npxG · last 6
1.68
npxGA · last 6
1.10
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -1.49 Fri 06/02 -0.44 Fri 13/02 +1.79 Fri 20/02 -1.15 Fri 27/02 -1.12 Fri 06/03 -2.58 Fri 13/03 -0.23 Mon 16/03 -1.74 Fri 20/03 -1.06 Fri 03/04 -2.35 Mon 06/04 -2.34 Sat 18/04 -0.67 Fri 24/04 -1.26 Fri 01/05 -1.81 Mon 04/05 -2.29 Fri 08/05 +1.66 Fri 15/05 +0.31 Mon 18/05 -2.31 Fri 22/05 +0.54 Fri 29/05 +2.72 Fri 12/06 -0.63 Fri 19/06 +0.68 Fri 26/06 +1.75 Fri 03/07 -1.12 Fri 10/07 -0.65 Sat 25/07 +0.20 Sun 02/08 +0.62 Sun 09/08 +0.93 Fri 21/08 +0.85 Fri 28/08 +1.49 Fri 11/09 +0.61 Mon 14/09 -1.04 Fri 18/09 -0.38 season avg
Waterford FC: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 06/02 Shelbourne 0.39 1.88 -1.49 -1.49
Fri 13/02 Drogheda United 0.85 1.29 -0.44 -0.97
Fri 20/02 Sligo Rovers 2.68 0.89 +1.79 -0.05
Fri 27/02 Derry City 1.44 2.59 -1.15 -0.32
Fri 06/03 Bohemian FC 0.77 1.89 -1.12 -0.48
Fri 13/03 Dundalk FC 0.63 3.21 -2.58 -0.83
Mon 16/03 Galway United 1.96 2.19 -0.23 -0.75
Fri 20/03 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.30 2.04 -1.74 -0.87
Fri 03/04 Shamrock Rovers 0.81 1.87 -1.06 -0.89
Mon 06/04 Bohemian FC 0.27 2.62 -2.35 -1.04
Sat 18/04 Sligo Rovers 1.18 3.52 -2.34 -1.16
Fri 24/04 Galway United 0.73 1.40 -0.67 -1.12
Fri 01/05 Shamrock Rovers 0.64 1.90 -1.26 -1.13
Mon 04/05 Dundalk FC 2.36 4.17 -1.81 -1.18
Fri 08/05 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.34 3.63 -2.29 -1.25
Fri 15/05 Derry City 2.15 0.49 +1.66 -1.07
Mon 18/05 Drogheda United 1.71 1.40 +0.31 -0.99
Fri 22/05 Shelbourne 0.27 2.58 -2.31 -1.06
Fri 29/05 Drogheda United 1.34 0.80 +0.54 -0.98
Fri 12/06 Sligo Rovers 3.12 0.40 +2.72 -0.79
Fri 19/06 Shamrock Rovers 0.47 1.10 -0.63 -0.78
Fri 26/06 Dundalk FC 2.15 1.47 +0.68 -0.72
Fri 03/07 Derry City 3.29 1.54 +1.75 -0.61
Fri 10/07 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.43 2.55 -1.12 -0.63
Sat 25/07 Galway United 0.62 1.27 -0.65 -0.63
Sun 02/08 Shelbourne 1.67 1.47 +0.20 -0.60
Sun 09/08 Bohemian FC 1.66 1.04 +0.62 -0.55
Fri 21/08 Sligo Rovers 1.59 0.66 +0.93 -0.50
Fri 28/08 St. Patrick's Athletic 2.27 1.42 +0.85 -0.45
Fri 11/09 Dundalk FC 2.04 0.55 +1.49 -0.39
Mon 14/09 Derry City 1.50 0.89 +0.61 -0.36
Fri 18/09 Shamrock Rovers 1.01 2.05 -1.04 -0.38

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.40 npxG and 1.77 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 7 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
−0.01 xG vs league average
Over 32 league matches
Last 5
number 5 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 32 matches · number 7 hardest of 10

  1. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  2. Derry City Home +0.14
  3. Dundalk FC Home −0.01
  4. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  5. Sligo Rovers Away −0.77
  6. Bohemian FC Home +0.42
  7. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  8. Galway United Away −0.34
  9. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  10. Derry City Away +0.14
  11. Dundalk FC Away −0.01
  12. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  13. Sligo Rovers Home −0.77
  14. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  15. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  16. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  17. Derry City Home +0.14
  18. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  19. Dundalk FC Home −0.01
  20. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  21. Galway United Home −0.34
  22. Sligo Rovers Away −0.77
  23. Bohemian FC Away +0.42
  24. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  25. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  26. Galway United Away −0.34
  27. Dundalk FC Away −0.01
  28. Bohemian FC Home +0.42
  29. Derry City Away +0.14
  30. Sligo Rovers Home −0.77
  31. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  32. Shelbourne Home +0.06

Last 5

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 5 hardest of 10

  1. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  2. Derry City Home +0.14
  3. Dundalk FC Home −0.01
  4. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  5. Sligo Rovers Away −0.77

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Waterford FC shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Waterford FC take 13.4 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #7 in Premier Division (Ireland) for volume and #4 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.4 shots per match
#7/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 17.3
#2 Bohemian FC 16.7
#3 Dundalk FC 16.3
#4 Shelbourne 14.1
#5 Shamrock Rovers 13.8
#6 Derry City 13.7
#7 Waterford FC 13.4
#8 Galway United 12.2
#9 Drogheda United 10.9
#10 Sligo Rovers 9.7
League avg
13.8
Total
429 shots from 32 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#4/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Galway United 0.11
#2 Sligo Rovers 0.11
#3 Drogheda United 0.11
#4 Waterford FC 0.10
#5 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Shelbourne 0.10
#8 Bohemian FC 0.10
#9 Dundalk FC 0.10
#10 Derry City 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
44.64 npxG from 429 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
17.6 shots per match
#9/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bohemian FC 10.0
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 10.3
#3 Shamrock Rovers 11.0
#4 Derry City 11.2
#5 Shelbourne 12.2
#6 Dundalk FC 13.9
#7 Drogheda United 15.4
#8 Galway United 16.4
#9 Waterford FC 17.6
#10 Sligo Rovers 19.3
League avg
13.8
Total
564 shots allowed from 32 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#5/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#2 Galway United 0.09
#3 Sligo Rovers 0.10
#4 Shelbourne 0.10
#5 Waterford FC 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Drogheda United 0.10
#8 Derry City 0.11
#9 Bohemian FC 0.11
#10 Dundalk FC 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
56.77 npxGA from 564 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 296 of 430 shots over 32 matches

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 367 of 564 shots allowed over 32 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Waterford FC home and away xG

Waterford FC per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 16 16
xG / match 1.49 1.30
xGA / match 1.50 2.05
xGD / match -0.02 -0.74
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.35 0.99

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Waterford FC match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
32
xG / match
1.40
xGA / match
1.77
xGD / match
-0.38
Points
34 of 96
  1. Fri 18/09 Shamrock Rovers A xG 1.01 xGA 2.05 xGD -1.04
  2. Mon 14/09 Derry City H xG 1.50 xGA 0.89 xGD +0.61
  3. Fri 11/09 Dundalk FC H xG 2.04 xGA 0.55 xGD +1.49
  4. Fri 28/08 St. Patrick's Athletic A xG 2.27 xGA 1.42 xGD +0.85
  5. Fri 21/08 Sligo Rovers A xG 1.59 xGA 0.66 xGD +0.93
  6. Sun 09/08 Bohemian FC H xG 1.66 xGA 1.04 xGD +0.62
  7. Sun 02/08 Shelbourne H xG 1.67 xGA 1.47 xGD +0.20
  8. Sat 25/07 Galway United A xG 0.62 xGA 1.27 xGD -0.65
  9. Fri 10/07 St. Patrick's Athletic H xG 1.43 xGA 2.55 xGD -1.12
  10. Fri 03/07 Derry City A xG 3.29 xGA 1.54 xGD +1.75
  11. Fri 26/06 Dundalk FC A xG 2.15 xGA 1.47 xGD +0.68
  12. Fri 19/06 Shamrock Rovers H xG 0.47 xGA 1.10 xGD -0.63
  13. Fri 12/06 Sligo Rovers H Best underlying xG 3.12 xGA 0.40 xGD +2.72
  14. Fri 29/05 Drogheda United A xG 1.34 xGA 0.80 xGD +0.54
  15. Fri 22/05 Shelbourne A xG 0.27 xGA 2.58 xGD -2.31
  16. Mon 18/05 Drogheda United H xG 1.71 xGA 1.40 xGD +0.31
  17. Fri 15/05 Derry City H xG 2.15 xGA 0.49 xGD +1.66
  18. Fri 08/05 St. Patrick's Athletic A xG 1.34 xGA 3.63 xGD -2.29
  19. Mon 04/05 Dundalk FC H xG 2.36 xGA 4.17 xGD -1.81
  20. Fri 01/05 Shamrock Rovers A xG 0.64 xGA 1.90 xGD -1.26
  21. Fri 24/04 Galway United H xG 0.73 xGA 1.40 xGD -0.67
  22. Sat 18/04 Sligo Rovers A xG 1.18 xGA 3.52 xGD -2.34
  23. Mon 06/04 Bohemian FC A xG 0.27 xGA 2.62 xGD -2.35
  24. Fri 03/04 Shamrock Rovers H xG 0.81 xGA 1.87 xGD -1.06
  25. Fri 20/03 St. Patrick's Athletic H xG 0.30 xGA 2.04 xGD -1.74
  26. Mon 16/03 Galway United A xG 1.96 xGA 2.19 xGD -0.23
  27. Fri 13/03 Dundalk FC A Weakest underlying xG 0.63 xGA 3.21 xGD -2.58
  28. Fri 06/03 Bohemian FC H xG 0.77 xGA 1.89 xGD -1.12
  29. Fri 27/02 Derry City A xG 1.44 xGA 2.59 xGD -1.15
  30. Fri 20/02 Sligo Rovers H xG 2.68 xGA 0.89 xGD +1.79
  31. Fri 13/02 Drogheda United A xG 0.85 xGA 1.29 xGD -0.44
  32. Fri 06/02 Shelbourne H xG 0.39 xGA 1.88 xGD -1.49

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.17. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Waterford FC in Premier Division (Ireland)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect