Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeBournemouth 2:2 Brentford
Bournemouth were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Brentford's attack: 0.50 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.78).
Goals
- 34' Kevin Schade Brentford · 0.17 xG chance 0–1
- 38' Justin Kluivert Bournemouth · 0.12 xG chance 1–1
- 52' Marcus Tavernier Bournemouth · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
- 56' Kevin Schade Brentford · 0.03 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Bournemouth
- 46%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Brentford
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Brentford produced 0.78 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 8
- On target
- 10
- 2
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 1.26
- 0.38
- Set-piece xG
- 0.87
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.20 for Bournemouth and 0.50 for Brentford.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.64 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Bournemouth
- Brentford
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.37 xG created 1.56 xGA
- W 0.82 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
- D 2.25 created, 1.48 conceded against Manchester City
- D 0.95 created, 1.73 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- L 0.65 created, 2.25 conceded against Manchester City
- D 2.16 created, 1.84 conceded against Everton
- D 1.37 created, 0.71 conceded against Newcastle United
1.69 xG created 1.91 xGA
- L 0.24 created, 2.98 conceded against Manchester City
- D 1.71 created, 1.72 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.56 created, 3.04 conceded against Liverpool
- W 3.87 created, 0.57 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- D 1.56 created, 1.43 conceded against Leeds United
- D 1.21 created, 1.71 conceded against Sunderland
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 2.45 | +11.9% | Lost |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 1.67 | +4.6% | Lost |
| Brentford not to score | 4.00 | +0.9% | Lost |
| Bournemouth to score | 1.20 | +0.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +0.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 45.7% | 39.1% | +6.5 pp | 2.19 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.6% | +1.3 pp | 3.57 |
| Brentford | 26.4% | 34.2% | −7.9 pp | 3.79 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score | 84.0% | 78.3% | +5.7 pp | 1.19 |
| Bournemouth not to score | 16.0% | 21.7% | −5.7 pp | 6.24 |
| Brentford to score | 74.8% | 76.6% | −1.8 pp | 1.34 |
| Brentford not to score | 25.2% | 23.4% | +1.8 pp | 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | 62.5% | +1.8 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.7% | 37.5% | −1.8 pp | 2.80 |
| Bournemouth 2+ goals | 52.0% | 48.5% | +3.5 pp | 1.92 |
| Bournemouth at most 1 goal | 48.0% | 51.5% | −3.5 pp | 2.08 |
| Brentford 2+ goals | 37.2% | 44.3% | −7.0 pp | 2.69 |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 62.8% | 55.7% | +7.0 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 81.1% | +2.4 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.6% | 18.9% | −2.4 pp | 6.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 60.2% | −1.6 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 39.8% | +1.6 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bournemouth sample
- 20 matches
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.