Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 15:00
Full timeLeeds United 1:1 Brentford
Leeds United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 41' Kevin Schade Brentford · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
- 79' Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds United · 0.96 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Leeds United
- 37%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Brentford
- 33%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 22
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 6
- 18
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.28
- 1.31
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.32
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for Leeds United and 1.60 for Brentford.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 3.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Leeds United
- Brentford
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.04 xG created 1.64 xGA
- D 0.81 created, 1.65 conceded against Bournemouth
- W 1.64 created, 0.57 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.34 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 0.39 created, 3.06 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.59 created, 2.61 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.47 created, 0.66 conceded against Nottingham Forest
1.85 xG created 1.75 xGA
- L 1.43 created, 1.27 conceded against Manchester United
- W 2.27 created, 0.92 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.24 created, 2.98 conceded against Manchester City
- D 1.71 created, 1.72 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.56 created, 3.04 conceded against Liverpool
- W 3.87 created, 0.57 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +4.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +1.3% | Lost |
| Leeds United to score | 1.25 | +1.0% | Won |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 2.25 | +1.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 37.2% | 37.0% | +0.2 pp | 2.69 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.6% | +1.5 pp | 3.32 |
| Brentford | 32.7% | 34.3% | −1.7 pp | 3.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United to score | 78.5% | 75.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Leeds United not to score | 21.5% | 25.0% | −3.5 pp | 4.66 |
| Brentford to score | 76.1% | 73.1% | +3.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Brentford not to score | 23.9% | 26.9% | −3.0 pp | 4.19 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 55.7% | +5.8 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.5% | 44.3% | −5.8 pp | 2.60 |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 42.5% | 41.1% | +1.4 pp | 2.35 |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 57.5% | 58.9% | −1.4 pp | 1.74 |
| Brentford 2+ goals | 39.1% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 2.56 |
| Brentford at most 1 goal | 60.9% | 60.8% | +0.2 pp | 1.64 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | 74.5% | +5.6 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 25.5% | −5.6 pp | 5.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 50.0% | +3.1 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 50.0% | −3.1 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.