Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Chelsea – Coventry City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Chelsea
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Coventry City
- 24%
| Chelsea | Draw | Coventry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.12 | 3.48 | 4.15 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Chelsea
47% Chelsea to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 17th
- Chelsea attack v Coventry City defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 17th
- Chelsea defence v Coventry City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.15
- Chelsea v Coventry City
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Chelsea
14 listed-
Robert Lynch Sánchez 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Como on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marc Guiu Paz 0% chance
Forward · Has joined RB Leipzig permanently
-
Dário Essugo 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Trevoh Chalobah 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Como permanently
-
Emmanuel Emegha 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season
-
Filip Jörgensen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mamadou Sarr 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season
-
Moisés Caicedo 50% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Marco Palestra 50% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
-
João Pedro 75% chance
Forward · Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cole Palmer 75% chance
Midfielder · Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Reece James 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Coventry City
14 listed-
Oliver Dovin 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Leyton Orient on loan for the rest of the season
-
Aurèle Amenda 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Taiwo Awoniyi 0% chance
Forward · Suspended until 19 Oct
-
Kai Andrews 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Liam Kitching 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Raphael Borges Rodrigues 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Burton Albion on loan for the rest of the season
-
Haji Wright 0% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Luke Woolfenden 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jahnoah Markelo 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently
-
Kaine Kesler-Hayden 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Miguel Brau 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season
-
Josh Eccles 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Norman Bassette 0% chance
Forward · Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Milan van Ewijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Chelsea | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.47 · 11th | 0.97 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.78 · 17th | (better) 1.73 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.31 · 14th | -0.75 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.16 · 15th | 0.87 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.42 | -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Chelsea clean sheet
- 29%
- Chelsea 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 5 matches
- Home xG sample · Chelsea
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Coventry City
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.